You are viewing:-

Archive for

30 Nov 2018 (AFR) – Mortgageport turns down Gold Coast Ruby apartment loans after 30 per cent value fall

(30 November 2018, AFR, p34, by Su-Lin Tan) ‘Sydney-based private lender Mortgageport has turned down loan applications from apartment buyers for developer Ralan Group’s Gold Coast apartment project Ruby, following a decline in valuation of up to 30 per cent for some apartments.’ Read more at (might need AFR login access, or try:

30 Nov 2018 (AFR) – Fed chairman Jerome Powell triggers market rally, says rates ‘just below’ neutral

[COMMENT: It might be great news to some people that the Dow Jones index jumped 618 points in one day; but take a good look at the chart of the S&P500 index and note that in the big scheme of things this one day rise on the Dow, or the S&P500 is but small when … Continue reading

30 Nov 2018 (AFR) – Oil holds losses while glut looms

(30 November 2018, AFR, p31, by Heesu Lee) ‘Oil held near the lowest level in a year as Russia signalled little urgency to commit to supply cuts, while US crude stockpiles continue to grow. Futures were up 0.7 per cent in New York, after sliding 2.6 per cent in the previous two sessions. Just days … Continue reading

30 Nov 2018 (AFR) – Capital expenditure plans pip predictions, says Australian Bureau of Statistics

(30 November 2018, AFR, p6, by John Kehoe) ‘Business investment dipped in recent months to weigh down short-term economic growth, but firms are expecting to unleash strong capital expenditure for the remainder of this financial year. A fall in spending on building and structures largely due to weakness in mining, offset by a rise in … Continue reading

29 Nov 2018 (AFR) – Housing construction hits yearly record of $77.2 billion in September quarter

(29 November 2018, AFR, p32, by Michael Bleby) ‘The value of home-building rose to a record $77.3 billion in the year to September, as a resilient sector kept total construction growing despite a quarterly dip.  Total residential construction rose 2.4 per cent over the four quarters from $75.4 billion a year earlier, more than enough to … Continue reading

29 Nov 2018 (AFR) – Perth house prices will grow faster than all other markets in 2019: Domain Group

(29 November 2018, AFR, p30, by Ingrid Fuary-Wagner) ‘After a free fall in prices over the past four years, house values in Perth are expected to grow faster than any other capital city in 2019, according to real estate group Domain. Perth house prices are expected to hit rock bottom by the beginning of 2019 and then grow 5 per cent … Continue reading

29 Nov 2018 (AFR) – Oil investors await OPEC’s word, short bets surge

(29 November 2018, AFR, p27, by Devika Krishna Kumar) ‘New York | Global oil markets are nervously eyeing OPEC’s upcoming meeting for clarity on future supply as the dust settles after a full-fledged rout in crude markets over the last several weeks. So far, there is no clear view if production will be cut or … Continue reading

29 Nov 2018 (AFR) – Iron ore’s plunge is about finally catching up to steel’s slump: Clyde Russell

(29 November 2018, AFR, p26, by Clyde Russell) ‘The 15 per cent plunge in iron ore prices in the past week certainly looks dramatic, but is more a case of the raw material finally catching up to a more established trend of weakness in Chinese steel prices. However, the drop in iron ore is more … Continue reading

29 Nov 2018 (AFR) – Donald Trump faces fallout of stalling US car industry

(29 November 2018, AFR, p25, by Sam Fleming and Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson) ‘Washington/ New York | Campaigning in April ahead of the US midterms, Donald Trump earned rapturous applause from a crowd in Michigan’s manufacturing heartland as he said he was single-handedly bringing the auto sector back to the state. The president’s sunny assessment of his … Continue reading

28 Nov 2018 (TheAge,SMH,MONEY) – RCR Tomlinson’s collapse has lessons for retail investors

[COMMENT: This article from Marcus Padley includes some great comments and insights – well worth reading the full article.] (28 November 2018, The Age, MONEY supplement, p2, By Marcus Padley) ‘Last year, RCR Tomlinson was a billion-dollar company. Last week, it went into administration. RCR went bust with a market capitalisation of $231 million. Two … Continue reading

28 Nov 2018 (TheAge) – ‘Not happy about it’: Trump fumes as 15,000 auto jobs slip away – Job losses a challenge to Trump

(28 November 2018, The Age, p15, Matthew Knott) ‘New York: When iconic car manufacturer General Motors announced it would cut almost 15,000 jobs, many of them in his political heartland, US President Donald Trump seemed to take it as a personal slight. On Monday local time, the iconic car maker announced it would close assembly … Continue reading

28 Nov 2018 (AFR) – October’s market downturn was needed to avoid a rout

(28 November 2018, AFR, p27, by William McInnes) ‘October’s market sell-off was destructive enough to avert a potentially more severe rout over the next two or three years, according to the boss of the $10 billion Bennelong Funds Management group, Craig Bingham. Seeing the upside to the sell-off, which caused the Australian equity market to … Continue reading

28 Nov 2018 (AFR) – China’s steel slides into bear market; iron ore, coal hit by selloff

(28 November 2018, AFR, p26, by Manolo Serapio Jr) ‘Manila | China’s steel prices tumbled more than 5 per cent to a five-month low on Monday as persistent worries over weaker demand pushed the sector into a bear market, sparking a selloff in raw materials iron ore and coking coal. The most actively traded rebar … Continue reading

28 Nov 2018 (AFR) – General Motors to sack 14,000 and close five assembly plants in North America

(28 November 2018, AFR, p11, by Jacob Greber) ‘Washington | In a blow to Donald Trump’s America First rhetoric, General Motors will slash more than 14,000 workers and close five North American factories to counter a slump in demand for traditional sedans and amid signs of a slowing economy. Echoing decisions by Ford Motor and … Continue reading

28 Nov 2018 (AFR) – Cheaper petrol an early Christmas present for Australian motorists

(28 November 2018, AFR, p3, by Mark Ludlow) ‘Australian motorists are enjoying the lowest petrol prices in eight months as Brent crude oil price dropped below $US60 for the first time in a year, but pundits are divided as to whether the low prices will last past Christmas. While there had been fears petrol prices … Continue reading

27 Nov 2018 (AFR) – Mortgage delinquencies double as loans convert to principal-interest: Moody’s

(27 November 2018, AFR, p31, by Michael Bleby) ‘Overdue loans will rise as mortgages convert to principal-and-interest from interest-only, driving a “moderate” increase in mortgage delinquencies, Moody’s Investor Service says in a new report. Citing its own figures showing that 0.94 per cent of loans that had converted to principal-and-interest from interest-only were 90 days or … Continue reading

27 Nov 2018 (AFR) – Resources rout drives ASX lower – Oil price fire sale saps sharemarket’s energy

(27 November 2018, AFR, p27, by William McInnes) ‘The major mining and energy stocks ended two positive days of trading for the local sharemarket on Monday as iron ore and oil prices tumbled further. The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed 44.6 points, or 0.8 per cent, lower at 5671.6 while the broader All Ordinaries Index slumped 43.1 … Continue reading

27 Nov 2018 (AFR) – Oil slide rings alarm bell for global economy

(27 November 2018, AFR, p27, by Sarah Turner) ‘Another collapse in the oil price late last week is sending worrying signals about the health of the global economy, with the picture for the commodity further clouded by supply and demand trends and the US President publicly backing lower prices. By the end of the regular trading … Continue reading

27 Nov 2018 (AFR) – RBA reveals the four reasons behind the house price correction

(27 November 2018, AFR, p2, by Jonathan Shapiro) ‘A credit crunch is not the only cause of the housing correction that has hit Sydney and Melbourne as a buyer retreat has reduced demand for loans. That is the assessment of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which said the “significant adjustment” in house prices over the … Continue reading

26 Nov 2018 (AFR) – Positioning for a rate hike pause by the Federal Reserve – Investors getting jittery despite profits

(26 November 2018, AFR, p23, by Timothy Moore) ‘US equity investors have begun to position for a pause in the Federal Reserve’s rate hiking cycle and that’s put the bull market in peril. Despite stellar third-quarter profits across corporate America, the lowest unemployment rate in a generation, an economy expanding faster than its potential and … Continue reading

26 Nov 2018 (AFR) – Market minds: Looking through the P/E multiple to unlock value

[COMMENT: I cannot help but comment on this article. It includes a good discussion about the usefulness, or otherwise, of the PE multiple when looking for shares to buy. After reading this one I became even more convinced that the PE might generally be useful (eg. lower PE is better), but that it cannot be … Continue reading

26 Nov 2018 (AFR0 – Wealth effect tempers optimism around household consumption growth

(26 November 2018, AFR, p22, by Vesna Poljak) ‘Even a 10 per cent fall in house prices will be felt by Australia’s richest households and lead to an erosion of consumption growth according to new research from UBS, which suggests the wealth effect in Australia is stronger than realised. The wealth effect is concentrated in … Continue reading

26 Nov 2018 (AFR) – Bank of Italy sounds alarm over stability of banks and insurers

(26 November 2018, AFR, p21, by Kate Allen) ‘Italy’s central bank has sounded the alarm over the country’s rising bond yields, warning that they are set to cost the nation billions a year in additional interest payments on its debt and could threaten the stability of banks and insurers. Italian sovereign bond yields have ratcheted … Continue reading

26 Nov 2018 (AFR) – Black Friday deals lure US shoppers, biggest sales gains online

(26 November 2018, AFR, p17, by Nandita Bose and Melissa Fares) ‘New York | Shoppers across the United States snapped up deep discounts on toys, clothing and electronics both online and at stores on Black Friday, giving retailers’ a strong start to their make-or-break holiday season. A healthy economy and rising wages gave shoppers the … Continue reading

26 Nov 2018 (AFR) – Auction clearances stall at 40pc as house price threat to consumption emerges

(26 November 2018, AFR, p3, by Su-Lin Tan) ‘Sydney and Melbourne have entered a third month of auction clearance rates stalling around the 40 per cent level, cementing a worrying trend in the residential property market that has invited parallels with the lean years following the global financial crisis. Last week’s auction clearance rates cements … Continue reading

24 Nov 2018 (AFR) – ASX’s ‘santa rally’ under threat from weak consumer

(24 November 2018, AFR, p24, by Sarah Turner) ‘Investors may find their Christmas stockings rather empty if the traditional year-end market rally fails to materialise due to weak consumer spending. “I find it hard to see one of those broad-based rallies taking place due to uncertainty on the political and regulatory front,” Janus Henderson head … Continue reading

24 Nov 2018 (AFR) – ASX ends week lower amid political tensions

(24 November 2018, AFR, p33, by William McInnes) ‘Two strong trading sessions on Thursday and Friday weren’t enough to stop Australian shares closing the week slightly lower. The S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 14.4 points, or 0.3 per cent, to 5716.2 this week as political risks left the market trading defensively.  “The timeline of political risks is weighing on … Continue reading

23 Nov 2018 (AFR) – Texas is shaping as OPEC’s worst nightmare

(23 November 2018, AFR, p36, by Javier Blas) ‘The map lays out OPEC’s nightmare in graphic form. An infestation of dots, thousands of them, represent oil wells in the Permian basin of West Texas and a slice of New Mexico. In less than a decade, US companies have drilled 114,000. Many of them would turn a … Continue reading

23 Nov 2018 (AFR) – Housing downturn will hurt mall landlords Scentre, Vicinity, GPT: Citi

(23 November 2018, AFR, p35, by Nick Lenaghan) ‘The ongoing residential downturn will hit retail sales growth, creating a “meaningful” downside risk for major mall landlords, including Scentre, Vicinity and GPT, according to Citi. Housing downturns drive a slowdown in retail sales growth. The Citi team measured the extent of that impact after identifying 24 state-specific housing downturns … Continue reading

23 Nov 2018 (AFR) – ANZ doubles down on housing downturn: prices to fall 20pc

(23 November 2018, AFR, p35, by Nick Lenaghan) ‘Housing prices could fall as much as 20 per cent across Sydney and Melbourne before the downturn is over, according to a revised forecast from ANZ. ANZ’s economists are the latest to downgrade their predictions amid worsening signals from the housing market and the chilling effect of credit tightening.’ … Continue reading