Aussie Business Barometer

(17 January 2020, AFR, p37, Don Lee and Noah Bierman) ‘After nearly two years of a bruising trade war, US President Donald Trump signed a trade deal with China on Wednesday that provides the president with political bragging rights but allows both sides to put off the most difficult disputes until after the November election. … Continue reading →

(17 January 2020, AFR, p31, Michael Bleby, Senior Reporter) ‘Owner-occupier home loans jumped 10 per cent in November from a year earlier as access to credit eased and rising house prices across the eastern seaboard drew buyers back into the market. The increase in new mortgage commitments to owner-occupiers lifted the monthly total to a … Continue reading →

(17 January 2020, AFR, p28, Luke Housego, Reporter) ‘Buoyed by US-China relations, Australian shares closed at another record high on Thursday, with benchmark S&P/ASX 200 passing the historically significant 7000-points level for the first time. The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed 47 points, or 0.67 per cent, higher at 7041.8, taking the year-to-date gains for the … Continue reading →

(17 January 2020, AFR, p27, Robert Guy, Senior Writer) ‘The 1000 point rally in Australian stocks over the past 11 months testifies to the power of multiple expansion to gloss over anemic earnings growth, as low yields unite investors in the belief in TINA – There Is No Alternative.’ <snipped…> ‘But the missing ingredient in … Continue reading →

(17 January 2020, AFR, p13, Lisa Mascaro) ‘Washington | In a dramatic procession across the US Capitol, House Democrats carried the formal articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump to the Senate late on Wednesday (Thursday AEDT), setting the stage for only the third trial to remove a president in American history. Trump complained anew it … Continue reading →

(17 January 2020, AFR, p11, Jacob Greber, United States Correspondent) ‘Washington | Australian dairy, beef, energy and coal exporters could become collateral damage from Thursday’s historic phase-one US-China trade deal, hailed by Donald Trump as a “landmark” reset to global commerce. In an agreement almost immediately lambasted by critics for its emphasis on managed purchase … Continue reading →

(17 January 2020, AFR, p9, Michael Bleby, Senior Reporter) ‘Cautious consumers are using tax refunds and savings from lower borrowing costs to save and reduce debt, rather than putting it back into the retail economy, economists warn. Analysis by UBS economists George Tharenou and Carlos Cacho of Reserve Bank of Australia figures shows credit card … Continue reading →

(17 January 2020, AFR, p4, Fiona Carruthers, AFR Travel Editor) ‘The number of international tourists booking holidays to Australia is down 10 to 20 per cent due to the bushfires, and will cost the country at least $4.5 billion by the end of the year. The Australian Tourism Export Council (ATEC) said the year-on-year reduction … Continue reading →

(17 January 2020, AFR, p1, Sarah Turner and Vesna Poljak) ‘Leading investors warn that the sharemarket’s ascent to the 7000 points level helped by the lowest interest rates in history should be met with caution and may not be supported by earnings in an economy growing below-trend. A formalised phase one trade deal between the … Continue reading →

(17 January 2020, The Age, Business, p24, By David Scutt). ‘The Australian sharemarket surged to fresh record highs for the third consecutive session on Thursday, with the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) index smashing above the 7000 level for the first time, after Wall Street shot higher on the inking of a preliminary US-China trade agreement. … Continue reading →

(17 January 2020, The Age, p5, By Eryk Bagshaw and Matthew Knott) ‘Australian markets smashed through record highs after the United States and China signed the first phase of a trade deal that could put an end to more than two years of tension and hit local exporters.’ <snipped…> ‘The agreement could see the US … Continue reading →

(16 January 2020, AFR, p30, Ingrid Fuary-Wagner, Reporter) ‘Sydney’s new apartment boom pushed unit rents down to 2015 levels in the December quarter as slower population growth in the country’s largest city failed to absorb stock created in a cycle that peaked in 2018. Sydney was the only capital city where the median asking unit … Continue reading →

(16 January 2020, AFR, p29, Michael Bleby, Senior Reporter) ‘Housing construction is set to pick up in the second half of this year, after sentiment around residential construction posted its biggest lift in six years on the back of an improving property market and access to credit. The ANZ/Property Council of Australia March 2020 survey … Continue reading →

(16 January 2020, AFR, p12, Peter Ker, Resources reporter) ‘Australian coal miners say there are plenty of investors willing to replace those blacklisting the sector, as the world’s biggest fund manager announced a new policy that will reverse its aggressive buying of Australian coal stocks over the past year. BlackRock joined the long list of … Continue reading →

(16 January 2020, AFR, p5, Liam Walsh, Reporter) ‘The impact of bushfires on transport networks and power supplies is among factors pressuring fruit and vegetable prices, according to industry figures. The problems delaying the delivery of fresh food to markets or keeping produce in cold storage come on top of farmers having to deal with … Continue reading →

(16 January 2020, AFR, p5, Ingrid Fuary-Wagner and Larry Schlesinger) ‘Tourists have already deserted bushfire-hit regions of NSW including the Southern Highlands, Batemans Bay and the Blue Mountains and homebuyers are likely to do the same over the next 6 to 12 months as the fallout from the unprecedented fire season plays out in country … Continue reading →

[COMMENTS: The flow-on affects from the recent bushfire crises in both New South Wales and Victoria are likely to be serious and last for a long time. And we have probably not heard the last of it.] (16 January 2020, The Age, page 1, By Anthony Galloway) ‘Tourists are abandoning regional Victoria and NSW in … Continue reading →

(16 January 2020, The Age, Business, p24, By Dominic Powell) ‘National fashion chain Jeanswest has been placed into voluntary administration, blaming high rents as it becomes the fourth victim of Australia’s languishing retail market since the start of the year. KPMG’s Peter Gothard and James Stewart were appointed administrators of the chain on Wednesday afternoon, … Continue reading →

[COMMENT: A sign of the times – poor retail environment plus bushfire flow-on effects.] (15 January 2020, AFR, p15, Lucas Baird, Reporter) ‘Investors have sent Mosaic Brands’ market value tumbling in reaction to a dire sales update over the business impacts of bushfires. The fashion retailer – formerly known as Noni B – saw its … Continue reading →

(15 January 2020, AFR, p11, Michael Smith, China Correspondent) ‘Shanghai | China’s slowing economy has been given a temporary reprieve from Donald Trump’s tariff ceasefire, but is not out of the woods yet, economist have warned. Leading economists said on Tuesday that the risk of further confrontation with the US on trade, along with geopolitical … Continue reading →

(15 January 2020, AFR, p5, Hannah Wootton, Reporter) ‘Melburnians woke on Tuesday to a thick layer of smoke covering the city, forcing Australian Open tennis organisers to delay the start of the qualifying tournament after the city recorded the worst air quality in the world overnight. The smoke stretched from east from Geelong to fire-ravaged … Continue reading →

(15 January 2020, AFR, p1, John Kehoe, Senior Writer) ‘The chairman of the $166 billion sovereign wealth fund, Peter Costello, has warned that record low interest rates are pushing investors into risky financial products akin to “collateralised debt obligations”, which blew up during the 2008 global financial crisis. ‘ Read more at AFR.com (might need … Continue reading →

(15 January 2020, The Age, p8, By David Crowe and Angus Livingston) ‘Australians can expect higher prices for fresh food and meat as a result of the bushfire crisis, but supermarkets have been warned to not put more pressure on devastated farmers. Bushfire-affected farmers will also be given up to $75,000 to immediately repair their … Continue reading →

(15 January 2020, The Age, By Benjamin Preiss) ‘Businesses in Victoria’s north-east are bracing for shocking losses from this summer’s bushfires that could exceed an estimated $200 million for the region’s economy over three months. A survey of 200 tourism-dependent businesses in the north-east found that half of them experienced 100 per cent losses between … Continue reading →

[COMMENT: Is this a window into the health of the underlying Australian economy?] (14 January 2020, The Age, p3, By Samantha Hutchinson) ‘Racehorse owners spending up big at the Gold Coast Magic Millions carnival have set a record, splashing out almost $180 million in the first major horse sale of the year.’ Read more at … Continue reading →

(14 January 2020, AFR, p24, Joe Rennison) ‘New York | Companies across the globe took advantage of lower borrowing costs to sell a record amount of bonds in 2019, prompting renewed concerns among policymakers about soaring levels of debt. Just over $US2.5 trillion ($3.6 trillion) of corporate bonds were sold over the year, inching past … Continue reading →

(14 January 2020, AFR, p16, Rachel Chang) ‘Walmart Inc is preparing to wind up its physical presence in India and has fired a third of its top executives there, said a local media report. The world’s largest retailer plans to halt new-store expansion in India and will continue to cut staff, said The Economic Times, … Continue reading →

(14 January 2020, AFR, p16, Brenda Goh and Yilei Sun) ‘Ford Motor Co’s China vehicle sales fell for a third consecutive year, by 26.1 per cent as it battles a prolonged overall sales decline in its second-biggest market that has hit demand for its mass-market Ford brand and sports utility vehicles. The US automaker delivered … Continue reading →

(14 January 2020, AFR, p15, James Eyers, Senior Reporter) ‘The bushfire calamity could lift mortgage bad debts in the major banks, as lenders face a spike in claims for financial hardship from customers reliant on income from tourism and agriculture in areas decimated by the fires. Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s said on Monday it … Continue reading →

(13 January 2020, AFR, p29, Nick Lenaghan, Property Editor) ‘Extensive bushfires through NSW and Victoria – with the season far from over – are expected to exact a further toll on national milk production, which has already dwindled under drought conditions. Rabobank has forecast decline in milk production of 5.8 per cent to 8.3 billion … Continue reading →

(13 January 2020, AFR, p26, Luke Housego, Reporter) ‘… In what was otherwise a strong week for US equites, shares dipped on Friday on the release of employment growth figures for the world’s largest economy. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a rise in non-farm payroll employment of 145,000 in December and a steady … Continue reading →

(13 January 2020, AFR, p9, Michael Smith, China Correspondent) ‘Taipei | Taiwan’s voters have sent Beijing a clear signal they have no desire to live under a Hong Kong-style “one country, two systems” model after delivering president Tsai Ing-wen a landslide election victory and cementing her pro-independence party’s control of the island state’s parliament. The … Continue reading →

[COMMENT: The current challenges for retailers…] (11 January 2020, AFR, p19, Carrie LaFrenz, Senior Reporter) ‘December is supposed to be the busiest time of the year for retailers as Christmas approaches and shoppers make last-minute purchases. But that wasn’t the case for South Australian retail icon Harris Scarfe, which had been struggling for years with … Continue reading →

(11 January 2020, AFR, p11, William James) ‘London | Lawmakers approved legislation which will allow Britain to leave the European Union on January 31 with an exit deal, ending more than three years of tumult over the terms of the unprecedented divorce. They voted 330 to 231 in favour of the European Union (Withdrawal Agreement) … Continue reading →

(11 January 2020, AFR, Matthew Cranston, Economics correspondent) ‘Seasonally adjusted retail sales surged 0.9 per cent in November – the strongest growth in two years and well ahead of economist’s expectations for just 0.4 per cent growth. Economists had expected a bounce back in November with events such as Black Friday having become more statistically … Continue reading →

(11 January 2020, AFR, p3, Matthew Cranston and Nick Lenaghan) ‘The chances of the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting interest rates to a record low of 0.5 per cent next month have eased, following the strongest retail sales figures for two years, a surge in house prices and record highs in the sharemarket. With two … Continue reading →

(10 January 2020, AFR, p25, Chris Giles) ‘London | The easing of trade tensions between the US and China is unlikely to lead to a rapid improvement in the global economy, the World Bank has said as it released a gloomy set of forecasts. The development bank downgraded the growth outlook for most countries over … Continue reading →

(10 January 2020, AFR, p2, Matthew Cranston, Economics correspondent) ‘Australia has recorded its 23rd consecutive monthly trade surplus after stronger coal, iron ore and gas exports saw a $1.7 billion jump to a better than expected $5.8 billion in November, but imports have slowed – sparking concerns about consumption. The November surplus brought export records … Continue reading →

(10 January 2020, AFR, p1, Tom Richardson and Vesna Poljak) ‘Australian shares reclaimed their record high after Donald Trump declared that the US and Iran are not going to war, averting an outright conflict in the Middle East and promising peace “with all who seek it”. Investors responded optimistically to the cooling of the threat … Continue reading →

(9 January 2020, AFR, p26, Luke Housego, Reporter) ‘Australian shares closed marginally lower on Wednesday, with the attention of markets again concentrated on the Middle East and a retaliatory strike by Iran. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 closed 8.8 points, or 0.13 per cent, lower at 6817.6 points. News that Iran fired missiles into an Iraqi … Continue reading →

(9 January 2020, AFR, p13, William McInnes, Reporter) ‘Global markets were sent into a panic on Wednesday after Iran attacked US forces based in Iraq in retaliation for the killing of Iranian major general Qassem Soleimani, escalating tensions between Tehran and Washington. Iran reportedly fired more than a dozen ballistic missiles against at least two … Continue reading →

(9 January 2020, AFR, p3, Matthew Cranston, Economics correspondent) ‘Improved job vacancies that indicate businesses are taking the risk of hiring more people will not be enough to prevent the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting interest rates again next month, economists say. Job vacancies increased by 1.6 per cent in the November quarter in seasonally … Continue reading →

(8 January 2020, AFR, p29, Nila Sweeney, Reporter) ‘Home listings fell sharply over the year to December as strong buyer demand absorbed any remaining November stock before the quiet summer period, indicating the market recovery is spreading outside Sydney and Melbourne. The latest figures from SQM Research showed the number of homes listed for sale … Continue reading →

(8 January 2020, AFR, p6, Matthew Cranston, Economics correspondent) ‘Economic growth will take a 0.3 percentage point hit over the December and January quarters due to Australia’s bushfire crisis, according to the latest analysis from Goldman Sachs. As the fires have raged, financial markets have priced in a higher chance of another 0.25 percentage point … Continue reading →

(8 January 2020, AFR, p1, Vesna Poljak and Hannah Wootton) ‘The bushfire emergency has hit the outlook for the jobs market and caused consumer confidence to slump to its lowest level in four years in the first indication of the toll the deadly crisis is taking on economic activity, amid fears of worsening conditions later … Continue reading →

(7 January 2020, AFR, p29, Nila Sweeney, Reporter) ‘Failures of long-term investments highlight how crucial local economies are to home values. Property investors who are counting on home values to double every seven or eight years are in for a reality check as new research shows many areas are worth less now than they were … Continue reading →

(7 January 2020, AFR, p3, Matthew Cranston, Economics correspondent) ‘New vehicle sales across Australia dropped 3.8 per cent in December but have jumped in the biggest selling state of NSW – and could now be bottoming out reflecting the strong recovery in house prices. Overall there were 84,239 sales in December, down on the 87,528 … Continue reading →

(6 January 2020, The Age, Business, p30, By David Scutt) ‘Despite reduced trade tensions with the United States, an improvement in its vast manufacturing sector and additional stimulus measures, economists believe China’s economy is likely to get worse before it gets better in early 2020. “We see limited room for policy easing given Beijing’s target … Continue reading →

(6 January 2020, AFR, p12, William McInnes, Reporter) ‘Global equity markets could be rocked by a savage correction if tensions between the United States and Iran escalate, and a jump in the oil price is sustained. Investors were caught off-guard on Friday, after an airstrike ordered by US President Donald Trump killed Major General Qassem Soleimani, … Continue reading →

(4 January 2020, AFR, p7, Liz Main, Reporter) ‘China and India will eclipse the United States as world economic super powers and Asia will account for 35 per cent of the world’s gross domestic product by 2030, according to research by KPMG. “It will be in the next decade, for sure,” said Doug Ferguson, head … Continue reading →