(13 October 2018, AFR, p33, by Sarah Turner) ‘Australian shares ended a choppy session on Friday on a mildly positive note, with investors cautiously dipping a toe back into some of the beaten-down areas of the market while keeping a wary eye on the potential for further downside. The ASX ended Friday’s session up 11 … Continue reading
[COMMENT: I once heard it said that when the next “tallest building”, or “longest bridge” is announced and on the drawing board, then it might come to pass that the market will peak within about two to three years. This one is not touted as such; but it will be tall. Who knows?] (12 October … Continue reading
(12 October 2018, AFR, p32, by Nick Lenaghan) ‘House prices could fall by as much as 15 per cent peak to trough, according to Morgan Stanley, which has revised its outlook downwards amid weakening economic signals. The latest forecast from Morgan Stanley weighs a series of factors: not only tight credit conditions and rising servicing conditions but also the … Continue reading
(12 October 2018, AFR, p30, by Karen Maley) ‘Has the US share market – which was only recently celebrating its achievement in hitting an all-time high – become the latest shoe to drop as the scourge of tightening financial conditions and escalating trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies works its way through global … Continue reading
(12 October 2018, AFR, p14, by Jessica DiNapoli and Mike Spector) ‘New York | Sears Holdings is preparing to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the coming days following years of declining sales, sources said, casting doubt over the survival of what was once the world’s largest retailer. The bankruptcy filing would end a … Continue reading
(12 October 2018, AFR, p13, by Adam Triggs) ‘ “Brighter prospects, optimistic markets, challenges ahead.” That was the title of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook update in January this year. How quickly things have changed. Since that report was published, turbulence, volatility and crises have dominated the economic landscape. Argentina is in crisis. Turkey is … Continue reading
(12 October 2018, AFR, p1,by:Vesna Poljak, Sarah Turner, Michael Smith, Jacob Greber) ‘Donald Trump escalated the sell-off sweeping global markets by firing a shot at the Federal Reserve, laying the blame for the worst losses for shares since February at chair Jay Powell and saying the central bank has “gone crazy”. Sharp falls in high-flying … Continue reading
(12 October 2018, The Age, Business, p27, William McInnes & Nick Toscano) ‘Australian shares have suffered a sharp fall amidst heavy selling in global markets as investors worry about the prospect of a trade war with China and the impact of rising interest rates in America. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index closed 166 points, or … Continue reading
(11 October 2018, AFR, p46, by Michael Bleby) ‘Housing construction picked up in the year to June, as building of detached houses and both apartments rose to higher levels than in 2017, official figures showed on Wednesday Total dwelling commencements rose to a seasonally adjusted 228,478 in the 2018 financial year, above 221,238 in the previous year as detached … Continue reading
(11 October 2018, AFR, p43, by Ingrid Fuary-Wagner) ‘Homeowners struggling to repay their mortgages are most likely to be found in the outer suburbs of Australia’s cities. A new report from Moody’s Investor Service found that, on average, delinquency rates were lowest within five kilometres of Australia’s CBDs and highest in neighbourhoods 30 to 40 kilometres … Continue reading
(11 October 2018, AFR, p43, by Ingrid Fuary-Wagner) ‘Apartment rent prices across Australia dipped over the September quarter, with Sydney weighing slightly on the overall market. Nationally, asking rents for units fell 0.4 per cent to $461 per week in part caused by rental stock in Sydney hitting an all-time high.’ Read more at AFR.com … Continue reading
(11 October 2018, AFR, p40, by Larry Schlesinger) ‘Sales of Perth office towers are expected to top $1 billion this calendar year in a sign of renewed optimism in the country’s weakest, but improving, capital city office leasing market.’ Read more at AFR.com (might need AFR login access, or try: AFR.com/trial)
(11 October 2018, AFR, p40, by Nick Lenaghan) ‘The take-up of office space in the national office market has hit its highest level in more than a decade as white-collar jobs expand, according to quarterly figures compiled by JLL. Those figures show net absorption – the industry term that refers to the amount of space taken up … Continue reading
(11 October 2018, AFR, p38, by Michael Bleby) ‘NAB has cut its housing price forecasts for Sydney and Melbourne for the second time in four months, citing a ‘collapse’ in confidence of property professionals in the two largest cities. ‘ Read more at AFR.com (might need AFR login access, or try: AFR.com/trial)
(11 October 2018, AFR, p38, by Matthew Cranston) ‘Expectations on the availability of credit for buying property are the worst they have been since 2011 with more than twice the number of Australia’s property industry professionals expecting interest rates to rise and house prices as well as shopping centre values to fall over the next … Continue reading
(11 October 2018, AFR, p9, by John Kehoe) ‘The International Monetary Fund has ramped up concerns on risks to Australia’s economy from bulging household debt and high house prices, as it warned global asset valuations could “adjust abruptly” due to further US interest rate rises. The IMF’s biannual global financial stability report said international financial … Continue reading
(11 October 2018, AFR, p7, by William McInnes) ‘Consumer sentiment ticked slightly higher in October, even as the number of negative factors including falling house prices and rising petrol prices weighed confidence. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment rebounded 1 per cent to 101.5 and remains above 100 points, a sign that optimists still … Continue reading
(11 October 2018, The Age, Business, p23, by Carolyn Cummins) ‘Confidence in the housing market has slumped with NSW and Victoria the hardest hit due to falling house prices and tightening credit. The latest ANZ/Property Council survey shows property industry confidence in the NSW market has dropped fourteen index points from 134 to 120 over … Continue reading
(10 October 2018, AFR, p34, by Emma Dong) ‘Shanghai | Home buyers angry that apartments are being sold for much less than they paid swamped property developers’ marketing offices across China over the Golden Week holiday, demanding their money back. A sales centre for Xinzhou Mansion, a project of Country Garden located in Shangrao, a city in Jiangxi … Continue reading
(10 October 2018, AFR, p32, by Michael Bleby) ‘House owners looking to sell in Sydney sold in August at an average discount of 6.8 per cent on their original asking price, as selling times lengthened in the country’s biggest city. The discount up from 6.7 per cent in July and more than one-third higher than the … Continue reading
(10 October 2018, AFR, p13, by: Sarah Turner, William McInnes) ‘Investors wiped $42.5 billion off the Australian sharemarket to send it to a fresh four-month low in a torrid session that saw a number of highly valued growth stocks dumped. Fresh highs for US 10-year Treasury yields and ongoing tensions between the US and China … Continue reading
(10 October 2018, AFR, p6, by John Kehoe) ‘Australia’s strong economic growth is tipped to peak at a six-year high of 3.2 per cent in 2018 before the US-China trade war slows the export-dependent local economy next year, according to the International Monetary Fund’s latest world economic outlook (WEO). The IMF forecasts the world economic … Continue reading
(10 October 2018, The Age, Business, p25, by Stephen Bartholomeusz) ‘There’s a whiff of fear in the air in China as escalating trade frictions with the US begin to impact on an economy that had its own pre-existing issues. Returning after a week-long national holiday, China’s stock markets and its currency were rattled on Monday … Continue reading
(9 October 2018, AFR, p32, by Rana Foroohar) ‘The US economy is white hot. Consumer confidence is higher than it has been since the 1990s. Unemployment just hit its lowest level since 1969. Using amazingly bold language for a central banker, US Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell says he is “very happy” about the ” … Continue reading
(9 October 2018, AFR, p11, by Yuka Obayashi and Sudarshan Varadhan) ‘Tokyo/New Delhi | Indian aluminium makers including Hindalco Industries and Vedanta are boosting sales to Japan as US sanctions against Russia’s Rusal and import tariffs shake up traditional supply routes. India’s product has generally not been regarded as high enough quality by Japan’s demanding … Continue reading
(9 October 2018, AFR, p11, by: Michael Smith, Sarah Turner) ‘Shanghai/Sydney | China’s stockmarket fell 3.7 per cent on Monday after the country returned from a week-long break to growing fears about rising US hostilities, and the long-term effect of a trade war on the world’s second-largest economy. A move by Beijing over the weekend … Continue reading
(8 October 2018, AFR, p36, Reuters) ‘Hong Kong private home prices fell in August for the first time in 29 months and are expected to soften further as interest rates rise and the Sino-US trade war clouds the outlook for the city’s economy. Prices eased 0.076 per cent last month from July, government data showed. While slight, … Continue reading
(8 October 2018, AFR, p33, by Michael Bleby) ‘Secrecy around the cladding on hundreds of apartment towers nationally is making it harder for banks to lend on apartments at a time when lending is already tight. The lack of disclosure around cladding risks of apartments has already prompted one Victorian investor to seek access to … Continue reading
(8 October 2018, AFR, p22, by William McInnes) ‘Veteran investor Geoff Wilson says further rises in US bond yields could spell the end of the longest bull market in history. On Friday, the 10-year Treasury bond yield hit a fresh seven-year high of 3.23 per cent on the back of US employment data. While the … Continue reading
(8 October 2018, AFR, p21, by Sam Fleming) ‘It may dismay relatives in his native Belgium, not to mention his wife’s family in Mexico, but Laurent Deconinck counts himself an enthusiast for the policies of Donald Trump. The benefits, he says, walking across his factory floor in a northern suburb of Minneapolis-Saint Paul, are all … Continue reading
(6 October 2018, CNBC online, Fred Imbert | Alexandra Gibbs) The broad index fell nearly 1 percent this week, posting its worst weekly performance since September. The U.S. economy added 134,000 in September, well below the expected gain of 185,000. However, the U.S. unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since 1969. Wages, meanwhile, grew … Continue reading
(5 October 2018, AFR, p33, by Michael Bleby) ‘New home sales continued to fall in August, pulling the total down 27.1 per cent from the national peak in April 2014, Housing Industry Association figures on Thursday showed. The 2.9 per cent month-on-month decline followed July’s…’ Read more at AFR.com (might need AFR access, or try: … Continue reading
(5 October 2018, AFR, p33, by Michael Bleby) ‘Rising mortgage costs will hit housing affordability at a time when dwelling prices are falling, as home loan servicing costs rise to highs not seen since the global financial crisis, PIMCO warns. Higher wholesale funding costs for retail banks, worsened by concerns about a deteriorating housing market, … Continue reading
(5 October 2018, AFR, p33, by Matthew Cranston) ‘Buyers of apartments in Brisbane’s tallest building – AMP Capital’s Skytower are trying to sell out of their properties for as much as 10 per cent discounts – with some buyers being Asian speculators who may be struggling with finance. The move to sell the apartments at such discounts comes as The Australian Financial … Continue reading
(5 October 2018, AFR, p30, by Matthew Stevens) ‘The copper market’s long expected drift into supply deficit is likely to be hurried by China’s One Belt, One Road projects with BHP now forecasting that the opening rounds of the fabulously ambitious initiative will add the equivalent of 7 per cent of 2017 demand. In its … Continue reading
(5 October 2018, AFR, p29, by Lu Wang) ‘On the bull market villains list, it’s public enemy No. 1: peak earnings. At what point does the profit bubble pop? Ever since Caterpillar mentioned a “high water mark” in growth, Wall Street has been on alert. To date, the worries have been unfounded. Earnings soared 24 … Continue reading
(5 October 2018, AFR, p20, by William McInnes) ‘Local mining stocks have soared as the world’s largest alumina refinery shut down its production indefinitely, after running at a reduced capacity for the past seven months. Norsk Hydro announced on Wednesday it would fully curtail operations at its Alunorte refinery in Brazil, sidelining 5 per cent of … Continue reading
(5 October 2018, AFR, p13, by Brian Chappatta) ‘Traders in the world’s biggest bond market are going all-in on bets that the US economy is as “extraordinary” as Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said this week. After months of trading in a well-defined range, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield ripped higher, climbing to 3.18 per cent, breaking … Continue reading
(5 October 2018, AFR, p13, by Jacob Greber) ‘Washington | The US bond market is on fire, with the benchmark 10-year yield galloping to its highest level since 2011 as investors raise bets America’s economy will continue to leave the rest of the world behind. In a surge that threatens to generate an unwelcome upward … Continue reading
(5 October 2018, AFR, p10, by Mark Ludlow) ‘A falling Australian dollar and higher international oil prices could create a perfect storm to push petrol prices above $2 a litre, costing motorists and businesses hundreds of millions of dollars extra a year. Although Australian Competition and Consumer Commission chairman Rod Sims warned petrol companies about inflated … Continue reading
(5 October 2018, AFR, p1, by: John Kehoe, Jacob Greber , Mark Ludlow) ‘Rising US interest rates fuelled by Donald Trump’s tax cuts stimulating the American economy could soon push the Australian dollar below US70¢ and gradually lift local inflation to help the Reserve Bank of Australia increase borrowing costs next year. The Australian dollar dropped to a 2½ year low … Continue reading
(4 October 2018, AFR, p45, by Su-Lin Tan) ‘A major bank has a blacklist of 6700 apartment projects across Australia where buyers are refused loans or are offered reduced loan to value ratios (LVR), according to mortgage broker Home Loan Experts. Some of the projects where buyers have either been denied loans or offered less … Continue reading
(4 October 2018, AFR, p45, by Pooja Thakur) ‘Singapore private home prices are still inching higher – albeit at the slowest pace in five quarters – even after the government imposed additional property curbs to avoid the risk of a sharp correction that could be destabilising to the city-state’s economy. An index tracking private residential prices increased … Continue reading
(4 October 2018, AFR, p42, by Oshrat Carmiel) ‘It’s been a rough year for Manhattan’s home sellers, and they’re not about to catch a break any time soon. In the three months through September, purchases dropped 11 per cent from a year earlier to 2987 – the fourth straight quarter with a decline, according to … Continue reading
(4 October 2018, AFR, p17, by Sarah Turner) ‘Trade tensions between the US and China may be coming home to roost for the global economy, with the most closely watched manufacturing surveys flashing warning signs from China to the euro-zone. Chinese factory activity slowed in September, official and private surveys showed, as the world’s second … Continue reading
(4 October 2018, AFR, p13, by Andrew Tillett) ‘Australian exporters remain upbeat about business conditions despite the turmoil wrought by Donald Trump’s trade wars, but are increasingly looking at new markets beyond English-speaking countries. Businesses have seized on the opportunities offered by a slew of free trade agreements, according to the federal government and Export Council of Australia’s annual … Continue reading
(3 October 2018, AFR, p40, by Ingrid Fuary-Wagner) ‘Homeowners in some parts of the country, possibly wary of further house price falls, have shown hesitation listing their properties for sale this spring. The property market normally springs into action at this time of the year, however nationally residential listings increased by just 1 per cent from August to … Continue reading
(3 October 2018, AFR, p37, by Peter Flanagan) ‘Cranes again pepper the city centre. Celebrity restaurant hot spot The Ivy has opened close to parliament, hoping for an influx of bankers fleeing Brexit. In the same complex, Barclays is paying €4000 ($6410) a year apiece for car parking spaces and €2.36 million annual rent at … Continue reading
(3 October 2018, AFR, p11, Bloomberg) ‘Rome/Luxembourg | Italian Finance Minister Giovanni Tria’s effort to promote his government’s new fiscal strategy ended in failure on Monday (Tuesday AEST), with the head of the European Commission warning of a Greek-style crisis and the nation’s bonds dropping to their weakest level in more than four years.’ Read … Continue reading
(3 October 2018, AFR, p9, by Sarah Turner) ‘The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady on Tuesday, as the central bank showed no signs that fallout from the royal commission and an accelerating house price decline will deter it from a patient policy stance. The central bank has held interest rates steady … Continue reading
(29 September 2018, AFR, p1, by: James Frost, Phillip Coorey) ‘Regulators are in for a major shake-up after royal commissioner Kenneth Hayne found the culture of greed permeating the financial services sector was a result of a failure to follow and enforce existing rules, and that more regulation was not the answer. The commissioner’s interim … Continue reading
