(23 August 2019, AFR, p30, William McInnes) ‘Australian shares rose firmly on Thursday as modest gains by the index heavyweights lifted the market higher on a mixed day of earnings.’ ‘Coles…’ ‘Santos…’ ‘Pro Medicus…’ ‘Vocus Group…’ ‘South32…’ ‘Webjet…’ ‘Bingo Industries…’ Read the complete article at AFR.com (might need AFR login access, or try: AFR.com/trial) Advertisements
(24 August 2019, AFR, online, Rita Nazareth and Vildana Hajric) ‘New York | US stocks slumped and Treasuries rallied after President Donald Trump said he’ll respond to new Chinese tariffs and blasted Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell. The US dollar fell.’ Read more at AFR.com (might need AFR login access, or try: AFR.com/trial)
(22 August 2019, AFR, p44, By Sydney Price) ‘Apartments in Manhattan’s Financial District aren’t exactly trading like blue chips on the nearby New York Stock Exchange. Whether in converted Art Deco office buildings or new glass towers, units are spending more time on the market and often selling below asking prices. After a spurt of … Continue reading
(22 August 2019, AFR, p34, Nila Sweeney, Reporter) ‘It has taken five years, but the housing markets that have been savaged by the resources downturn are finally staging a sustained recovery, a new data shows. Property prices and sales volumes have risen in a number of mining towns in Queensland and Western Australia over the … Continue reading
(22 August 2019, AFR, p13, By Jason Horowitz) ‘ROME — After 14 months of bickering, Italy’s government collapsed on Tuesday, plunging a key European nation already hobbled by financial fragility and political chaos into a renewed period of crisis and uncertainty. During the government’s short tenure, the nationalist-populist coalition struck fear into the heart of … Continue reading
(22 August 2019, AFR, p1, Simon Evans, Senior Reporter) ‘The chief executive of logistics giant Brambles has warned that a broad slowdown in Europe would crimp growth, as a string of ASX-listed companies warned of possible contagion from Donald Trump’s trade war with China. “Across Europe we’re seeing a slowdown, it’s not just related to … Continue reading
(21 August 2019, The Age, Business, p32, By Simon Johanson) ‘Land developers AV Jennings and Villa World have called the bottom of the property cycle after a year of slumping sales and consumer caution blew a hole in their profits. AV Jennings said the current property cycle has “bottomed” and that it will deliver a … Continue reading
(20 August 2019, AFR, p25, Rana Foroohar, Columnist) ‘Paradigm shifts tend to happen slowly, and then all at once. That’s the lesson I’ve taken away from the recent market turmoil. As I wrote last week, the surprise is only that the upset didn’t come sooner.’ <snipped…> ‘Consider that since January 2018 every major economy except … Continue reading
(20 August 2019, AFR, p11, Daniel Leussink and Tetsushi Kajimoto) ‘Tokyo | Japan’s exports slipped for an eighth month in July, while manufacturers’ confidence turned negative for the first time in over six years as China-bound sales slumped again in a fresh sign the Sino-US trade war could tip the economy into recession.’ Read more … Continue reading
(20 August 2019, AFR, p12, Jacob Greber, United States Correspondent) ‘Washington | America’s economy is strong, isn’t headed to recession and is forcing China to “eat” tariffs, said President Donald Trump and his top economic advisers as the administration scrambles to counter a wave of downturn fears. Speaking as he headed back to Washington from … Continue reading
(20 August 2019, AFR, p2, Matthew Cranston, Economics correspondent) ‘Australia’s inverted yield curve has given false readings on predicting a recession at least five times in the last 30 years and should not be so heavily relied upon by investors as an indicator of negative growth. The inverted yield curve – where the official cash … Continue reading
(19 August 2019, AFR, p30, Nila Sweeney, Reporter) ‘Rental growth across Australia has stagnated over the past 12 months with rents rising by just 0.6 per cent as vacancies and the time it takes to find a tenant blow out. But some areas are defying the sluggish market and racking up exceptional rental gains, data … Continue reading
(19 August 2019, AFR, p22, Patrick Commins, Columnist) ‘Investors are set to start the week on a steadier footing after a tumultuous two weeks, but an early reading on global manufacturing activity looms as a key test for investors as the ASX’s underwhelming earnings season rolls on.’ <snipped…> ‘So far, the profits season has provided … Continue reading
(19 August 2019, AFR, p12, Patrick Gillespie) ‘Buenos Aires | Investors are growing bearish on Argentina after a shock election result, but some voters don’t buy the market’s concerns while others remain stunned by the crippling loss. Both ends of the spectrum are latching onto conspiracy theories about what’s gone wrong, and what’s next. The … Continue reading
(19 August 2019, AFR, p3, Larry Schlesinger, Reporter) ‘The national auction clearance rate surged to a two-year high of 76.6 per cent this week based on preliminary CoreLogic figures, providing strong evidence of further strengthening of house prices this month. This was well above last week’s final clearance figure of 67.8 per cent, despite the … Continue reading
(19 August 2019, AFR, p2, Matthew Cranston, Economics correspondent) ‘More small and medium-sized businesses [SMBs] expect the economy to get worse in a year’s time than those businesses who think there will be an improvement, according to the latest Sensis Business Index. While 22 per cent of the 1000 businesses in the survey expect an … Continue reading
(17 August 2019, AFR, p27, Max Mason, Media & Marketing Editor) ‘Domain chief executive Jason Pellegrino says the signs are there that home buyers are returning to the Australian property market after “an extraordinary series of events”, which has seen the percentage of houses for sale drop to more than 20 year lows. National listings … Continue reading
(17 August 2019, AFR, p25, Vesna Poljak, Markets Editor) ‘The terrifying signal sent by the inversion of the US yield curve cannot be ignored, but neither is it fully understood, even though its strike rate in predicting recessions could be about to extend to eight from eight. There was no recovery in the sharemarket on … Continue reading
(17 August 2019, AFR, p22, James Thomson, Columnist) ‘As investors battle to come to grips with the grim reality of heightened market volatility, the second week of reporting season has presented a stark contrast between the haves and have-nots of the ASX. The first group of companies is focused, dependable and universally long-term in their … Continue reading
(17 August 2019, AFR, p22, William McInnes, Reporter) ‘The second week of earnings season proved difficult for many companies, as a global market sell-off and fears of recession pushed the vast majority of shares on the local market lower. The S&P/ASX 200 was caught in the worldwide drawdown, falling 178.9 points, or 2.7 per cent, … Continue reading
(16 August 2019, AFR, p31, John Kehoe, Senior Writer) ‘Global bond yields are flashing recession warning signs, but as former US Federal Reserve chairman Janet Yellen suggested there are reasons to believe this time could be different. An “inversion” of the US Treasury bond yield curve – interest rates on long-term bonds unusually falling below … Continue reading
(16 August 2019, AFR, p31, Matthew Cranston, Economics correspondent) ‘Fears of a US recession because of an inversion of the yield curve should be disregarded this time, analysts at the Royal Bank of Canada have suggested. As the two-year US Treasury securities traded above the 10-year note yield for the first time in 12 years, … Continue reading
(16 August 2019, AFR, p29, David Randall and Jennifer Ablan) ‘New York | The summer sell-off is finally here – and not all US investors are rattled by it. After a record-setting first half of the year that pushed US stock markets to new highs, a more than 760-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial … Continue reading
(16 August 2019, AFR, p12, Jacob Greber, United States Correspondent) ‘Washington | Mayhem returned to the world’s biggest and most important financial market as the first benchmark yield inversion since 2007 triggered storm warnings and fears the US economy is headed towards slower growth or even recession. Evidence is mounting for US investors that fallout … Continue reading
(16 August 2019, AFR, p5, Matthew Cranston, Economics correspondent) ‘Reserve Bank of Australia deputy governor Guy Debelle has warned of a “self-fulfilling downturn” globally because of the uncertainty over the US and China trade and technology war, but expects Australia will be insulated due to Chinese fiscal stimulus. After the Dow Jones Industrial Average sank … Continue reading
(16 August 2019, AFR, p4, Matthew Cranston, Economics correspondent) ‘The economy created 41,100 new jobs last month – outstripping expectations of a gain of 14,000 – but it was not enough to reduce the overall jobless rate from 5.2 per cent, which has been unchanged for the fourth consecutive month.’ Read more at AFR.com (might … Continue reading
(16 August 2019, AFR, p4, David Marin-Guzman, Workplace correspondent) ‘Average earnings growth for full-timers have reached a six-year high, growing by more than 3 per cent and adding to a pattern of upbeat labour market data. Figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday show full-time workers are earning an average of $1634.80 … Continue reading
[COMMENT: Now isn’t this interesting? The whole world is hypothesising about the likelihood of a global recession, but our local reserve bank is talking down the prospects!] (16 August 2019, AFR, p1, Vesna Poljak, Patrick Commins, Jemima Whyte, James Eyers and David Marin-Guzman) ‘The distress call being transmitted by seismic moves in the global bond … Continue reading
(16 August 2019, The Age, Business, p24, By Nick Toscano) ‘The head of the nation’s largest oil and gas producer has expressed deep concern about the escalation in the US-China trade war that wiped billions of dollars from world markets on Thursday, warning a sustained conflict will suppress global demand in the energy sector.’ Read … Continue reading
(16 August 2019, The Age, Business, p24, By Dominic Powell) ‘Super Retail Group has warned of additional costs to make up for underpaying its store managers for several years, overshadowing an otherwise robust full-year result.’ Read more at TheAge.com.au
[COMMENT: Now I have to somewhat agree to the premise of this article, that too much thinking about, and scaremongering about, a possible recession might just bring it on as a self-fulfilling prophecy. I never realised that the term ‘doom loop’ is in the economist’s lexicon.] (16 August 2019, The Age, Business, p20, By David … Continue reading
(16 August 2019, The Age, Business, p20, Stephen Bartholomeusz) ‘Perhaps the only surprise about the carnage in global financial markets overnight is that it hadn’t happened earlier. It has been evident for quite some time that the Trump trade wars were doing increasing damage to the more trade-exposed economies – China and Germany in particular … Continue reading
(16 August 2019, The Age, Business, p20, By David Scutt and Sarah Keoghan) ‘Top Australian chief executives say they are concerned about further turmoil for the global economy amid the ongoing threat of a trade war between the world’s two superpowers and fresh fears of a recession in the United States. The local sharemarket suffered … Continue reading
(16 August 2019, The Age, p4, By Jonnelle Marte) ‘Stock markets tanked on Wednesday (US time) after the bond market sounded a loud warning that the US economy might be headed toward a recession. Investors are spooked by a scenario known as the “inverted yield curve,” which occurs when the interest rates on short-term bonds … Continue reading
(16 August 2019, The Age, p4, By David Scutt) ‘Australian stocks were thumped on Thursday, logging their worst trading session in a year after moves in the US bond market stoked fears of a recession in the world’s largest economy. Around $60 billion in sharemarket value was torched as the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 tumbled 2.85 … Continue reading
(15 August 2019, AFR, p33, Larry Schlesinger, Reporter) ‘Investor sentiment towards retail property has sunk to levels last seen just after the global financial crisis a decade ago, according to a new report by ANZ Bank. Titled Retail malaise hits the property side, the report paints a troubling picture of operating conditions in the sector … Continue reading
(15 August 2019, AFR, p13, Huizhong Wu, Stella Qiu and Kevin Yao) ‘Beijing | China reported a raft of unexpectedly weak July data on Wednesday, including a surprise drop in industrial output growth to a more than 17-year low, underlining widening economic cracks as the trade war with the United States intensifies. Activity in China … Continue reading
(15 August 2019, AFR, p12, Michael Nienaber) ‘Berlin | A slump in exports sent Germany’s economy into reverse in the second quarter, data showed, as its manufacturers bore the brunt of a global slowdown amplified by tariff conflicts and uncertainty over Brexit. Gross domestic product (GDP) f…’ Read more at AFR.com (might need AFR login … Continue reading
(15 August 2019, AFR, p4, Matthew Cranston, Economics correspondent) ‘Wage growth has remained unchanged at 2.3 per cent per year despite a better than expected June quarter reading, according to official figures. Wages grew 0.6 per cent in the June quarter, more than the 0.5 per cent gain that the Bloomberg consensus of economists expected.’ … Continue reading
(15 August 2019, AFR, p4, Matthew Cranston, Economics correspondent) ‘Consumer confidence has bounced 3.6 per cent, according to the latest Westpac Melbourne Institute monthly reading, reversing a 4 per cent fall in July largely due to expectations around interest rates. Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said the improvement was probably due to consumers’ expectations of … Continue reading
(14 August 2019, The Age, Business, p26, By Simon Johanson) ‘It’s perhaps the only upbeat retail story around, and it’s playing out on Melbourne’s much-loved suburban shopping streets.’ <snipped…> ‘Inner-city hipsters are underpinning retailers in vibrant Smith Street, where vacancy fell to 2.7 per cent, and in trendy High Street in Northcote, which recorded vacancy … Continue reading
(14 August 2019, AFR, p29, Larry Schlesinger, Reporter) ‘Once a lively melting pot of espresso-sipping mobsters and pasta-eating hipsters, Melbourne’s Lygon Street has become the unfortunate new poster child for the ill winds blowing through the retail sector. New figures show the vacancy rate on Lygon Street on the fringe of the Melbourne CBD has … Continue reading
(14 August 2019, AFR, p29, Larry Schlesinger, Reporter) ‘Shopping centre owners face at least a decade of pain with annual rental income growth expected to barely keep pace with inflation, according to new forecasts from BIS Oxford Economics. “Despite some advantages such as solid population growth and an outperformance by larger retailers and chains, shopping … Continue reading
(14 August 2019, AFR, p12, John Geddie and Anshuman Daga) ‘Singapore | Singapore slashed its full-year economic growth forecast on Tuesday as global conditions were seen worsening and data confirmed the slowest growth rate in a decade amid mounting fears of recession in the city-state. The government cut its forecast range for gross domestic product … Continue reading
(14 August 2019, AFR, p6, Matthew Cranston, Economics correspondent) ‘Don’t expect an improvement in the unemployment rate any time soon, with the latest NAB Business conditions and confidence survey forecasts suggesting there will be fewer new jobs created per month than there has been in recent months. The survey’s July employment index, which measures the … Continue reading
(13 August 2019, AFR p32, James Thomson, Chanticleer) ‘Yet another set of good results from JB H-Fi have been delivered despite some dramatic shifts in both the retail sector and the consumer electronics industry. There’s a sort of ruthless efficiency to the JB H-Fi retail machine. Year in, year out, the company produces results that … Continue reading
(13 August 02019, AFR, p30, Patrick Commins, Columnist) ‘Experts correctly predicted only five of the 153 recessions recorded around the world between 1992 and 2014. Will they do any better this time around? “The record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished,” wrote the IMF’s Prakash Loungani in 2001. That scathing assessment was based … Continue reading
(13 August 2019, AFR, p29, Rana Foroohar, Columnist) ‘Central bankers can’t create real growth; they can only move money around. At some point, the markets and the real economy must converge. It’s the calm before the storm. Last week’s market volatility was ostensibly triggered by the US-China trade conflict turning into a full-blown currency war. … Continue reading
(13 August 2019, The Age, Business, p24, By Darren Gray) ‘Dairy giant Fonterra says ongoing drought is the “new norm” in Australia as it unveiled $820 million in write-downs after a lengthy review of its key assets, and forecast a loss of more than half a billion dollars for the 2019 financial year.’ Read more … Continue reading
(13 August 2019, The Age, Business, p23, Stephen Bartholomeusz) ‘If bonds markets are the best barometer of economic conditions then they are signalling something quite awful might lie ahead. Last week, after Donald Trump labelled China a currency manipulator and added the spectre of a currency war to the trade war between the world’s two … Continue reading
(13 August 2019, The Age, Business, p22, By Dominic Powell) ‘JB Hi-Fi chief executive Richard Murray said a post election sales bump helped the music and electronics store grow profits in the 2019 financial year, defying the gloomy conditions across the battered retail sector. Speaking to The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald, Mr Murray … Continue reading
