(19 June 2019, The Age, p1, By Eryk Bagshaw and Shane Wright) ‘Australia’s biggest lender has predicted interest rates will fall below 1 per cent by November, as the Reserve Bank looks to jolt the economy out of a stupor while Parliament argues over tax cuts. The Commonwealth Bank jumped on signals from the central … Continue reading
(18 June 2019, The Age, Business, p21) ‘Mumbai: India has announced it would raise tariffs on 28 categories of imports from the United States, the latest escalation in what has been a slow-motion trade fight between the two countries. The increased tariffs, on $1.4 billion of goods, went into effect Sunday morning in India and … Continue reading
(14 June 2019, AFR, p31, Enrico Dela Cruz) ‘China’s iron ore futures declined on Thursday as market participants locked in some gains after the steelmaking feedstock’s three-day surge to record highs earlier this week. But expectations of tight supply and brisk demand were seen intact, limiting the downside.’ Read more at AFR.com (might need AFR … Continue reading
(14 June 2019, AFR, p31, Sarah Turner, Reporter) ‘Bond and share prices are pushing toward multi-year highs in Australia, raising the stakes for investors who appear to be betting the RBA will do “whatever it takes” to stimulate inflation. The S&P/ASX 200 has jumped 15.9 per cent this year and is approaching the peak reached … Continue reading
(14 June 2019, AFR, p4, Matthew Cranston, Reporter) ‘The highest growth rate in jobs for more than a year, rebounding iron ore prices and the ASX-200 near an 11-year high has not changed the financial market’s view that the Reserve Bank will have to cut rates again next month. The economy created 42,300 new jobs … Continue reading
(14 June 2019, The Age, Business, p30, Stephen Bartholomeusz, Senior business columnist) ‘The downgrades to Kmart and Target department store sales and earnings that Wesfarmers announced ahead of its annual strategy briefing today is consistent with the depressed state of consumer confidence and a weakening economy and adds to the pressure on the Morrison government … Continue reading
(14 June 2019, The Age, Business, p33, By Carolyn Cummins and Simon Johanson) ‘A rise in home buyers defaulting on house-and-land sales has prompted Stockland, one of the country’s largest residential developers, to warn it will impact on the group’s second half earnings.’ Read more at TheAge.ocm.au
(13 June 2019, AFR, p13, Yilei Sun and Brenda Goh) ‘Beijing/Shanghai | China reported the worst-ever monthly sales drop in the world’s largest vehicle market on Wednesday, exacerbating concerns over the country’s economic slowdown and growing impact of an ongoing trade war with the United States. Sales tumbled 16.4 per cent in May from the … Continue reading
(13 June 2019, AFR, p8, Bo Seo, reporter) ‘The Reserve Bank’s decision to cut rates to a record low has failed to boost consumer confidence, according to Westpac and ANZ. Westpac’s consumer sentiment index dipped 0.6 per cent in June from May. Its survey found that responses collected after the RBA rate cut showed less … Continue reading
(13 June 2019, The Age, p29, By Stephen Bartholomeusz) ‘With the Reserve Bank’s cash rate expected to be reduced to 1 per cent, if not lower, later this year it isn’t surprising there is discussion about the prospect of the RBA deploying unconventional measures if the economy continues to slow. Quantitative easing (QE) – the … Continue reading
(12 June 2019, AFR, p37, Larry Schlesinger, reporter) ‘Amid falling valuations, buyers have walked away or defaulted on more than 100 completed apartments bought off-the-plan at Melbourne super skyscraper Australia 108, new figures show.’ <snipped…> ‘Research house Urbis found just 7 per cent of new apartment stock it monitored in Melbourne sold over the first … Continue reading
(12 June 2019, AFR, p7, Matthew Cranston, Reporter) ‘Business conditions have deteriorated, with declines in both forward orders and profitability according to the latest NAB Business Survey, but economists cautioned not to read to much into the result given the proximity to the federal election. Business confidence experienced its biggest monthly uptick in almost six … Continue reading
(12 June 2019, AFR, p1, Patrick Commins and William McInnes) ‘The ASX blew past an 11-year high on Tuesday, confirming Australia’s position as one of the top performing sharemarkets in 2019 as investors bet that RBA rate cuts and fiscal stimulus will bolster economic growth and boost company profits. The decision by US President Donald … Continue reading
(12 June 2019, The Age, Business, 29, By William McInnes) ‘Australian shares rose to an 11-year high on Tuesday after the United States scrapped its threat to impose tariffs on Mexican imports, which lifted global investor optimism. The S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 102.4 points, or 1.6 per cent, to 6546.3, beating the previous high of … Continue reading
(11 June 2019, The Age, Business, p21, By Josh Dye) ‘Casino giant Star Entertainment Group will begin slashing hundreds of jobs within days as it tries to counter a dive in demand from wealthy offshore VIP gamblers that has sparked warnings about the health of the wider sector.’ Read more at TheAge.com.au
(11 June 2019, AFR, p11, Brad Thompson, Reporter) ‘Farmers in Western Australia are back on track to produce another substantial grain crop and have doubled down on barley production despite the lingering threat of China imposing bans on the multibillion-dollar trade. Rain has soaked the state’s vast grain-growing belt over the past few days and … Continue reading
(11 June 2019, The Age, Business, p28, By Matt O’Brien) ‘For the first time in a long time, the recovery of the US economy looks like it might be starting to sputter a little bit. Everywhere you look, after all, there’s been less than stellar news recently. Consider the fact that the economy not only … Continue reading
[COMMENT: Warning!! Take care with opinions like those expressed in this news article. They may or may not prove correct.] (8 June 2019, AFR, p25, Sarah Turner, Reporter) ‘The first interest rate cut in almost three years lit a fire under the ASX and investors are now taking a deeper look at sectors such as … Continue reading
(8 June 2019, AFR, p15, Patrick Commins, Columnist) ‘Perhaps the most disconcerting aspect among the many troubling features of today’s global financial markets is that few profess to know where we go from here. This is not a statement in the sense of “nobody knows what tomorrow will bring”, although that is undoubtedly true. Rather, … Continue reading
(8 June 2019, AFR, p6, Duncan Hughes, Reporter) ‘Lenders are slashing term deposits and savings rates by more than double the 25 basis point reduction in cash rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia, with more cuts expected, according to analysts. Some lenders, such as Westpac and ANZ, made term deposit rate cuts on Tuesday … Continue reading
(7 June 2019, AFR, p16, By Clifford Krauss, New York Times) ‘A couple of months ago, the bulls ran the oil markets. Now the bears have taken over. Always volatile, oil prices have tumbled more than 20 percent since late April because of growing fears that demand is weaker than expected as the global economy … Continue reading
(7 June 2019, The Age, Business, p28, Stephen Bartholomeusz, Senior business columnist) ‘A bear market in US oil, a plunge in the copper price and worrying signs in the bond market add to the sense of foreboding that is now emanating from central banks and the global economic agencies. Since the breakdown of the trade … Continue reading
(6 June 2019, The Age, p6, By Shane Wright) ‘The economy is tanking. The Reserve Bank is slicing rates to a level not even considered during the Great Depression. And Donald Trump is playing tariff roulette with China. But none of this is going to have the freshly re-elected federal government panicking. Yet. The national … Continue reading
(6 June 2019, AFR, p41, Duncan Hughes, Reporter) ‘Demand for housing by new and existing residential property buyers slumped by nearly 20 per cent during the first three months of year, despite lower interest rates, improved affordability and cheaper prices, according to new analysis. But the recent federal election outcome, more rate cuts, improving confidence … Continue reading
(6 June 2019, AFR, p33, Robert Harley, Contributor) ‘Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Sure, the house price slide is coming to an end. But a sharp rebound in general prices is unlikely, and from, a social and economic perspective, unwanted. The sentiment towards housing has clearly turned. The Commonwealth Bank, Mirvac and Stockland have … Continue reading
(6 June 2019, AFR, p32, Ingrid Fuary-Wagner, Reporter) ‘Deep-pocketed investors with an eye on Brisbane’s CBD are more spoilt for choice than ever before, with about $1.8 billion worth of big-ticket commercial properties on the market or in due diligence. Owners of large-scale towers in the Queensland capital are cashing in on fresh interest from … Continue reading
(6 June 2019, AFR, p30, Su-Lin Tan, Reporter) ‘A two-bedroom apartment at Meriton’s Altitude apartment tower in Parramatta in Sydney’s west has sold at 23 per cent below its off-the-plan price, as the apartment market continues to struggle.’ Read more at AFR.com (might need AFR login access, or try: AFR.com/trial)
(6 June 2019, AFR, p29, Michael Bleby, senior Reporter) ‘Building industry insolvencies have risen to a four-year high in NSW and are approaching historical highs nationally, prompting subcontractors to demand protection of unpaid payments in an industry estimated to leave an unpaid $3 billion-worth of bills each year. Corporate regulator ASIC figures show NSW building … Continue reading
(6 June 2019, AFR, p5, Simon Evans, Senior Reporter) ‘New vehicle sales in Australia are still in decline, with the slump extending to 14 consecutive months following the latest official figures for May from industry body, the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI). Sales across the market declined 8.1 per cent in May compared with … Continue reading
(6 June 2019, AFR, p4, Matthew Cranston, Reporter) ‘Easing consumption, falling dwelling investment and drought dragged down Australia’s economic growth to just 0.4 per cent in the March quarter, with big government spending and higher terms of trade the key supports for the economy. The annual growth figure of 1.8 per cent, down from 2.3 … Continue reading
(5 June 2019, AFR, p36, Jacob Greber, United States Correspondent) ‘Washington | Signs of a global central bank pivot back to easier monetary policy – silencing last year’s talk of “normalisation” – is intensifying as Donald Trump’s increasingly erratic trade war casts a shadow over the world’s biggest economies. Policymakers from the US Federal Reserve, … Continue reading
(5 June 2019, AFR, p8, Matthew Cranston, Reporter) ‘A record $13.6 billion trade surplus driven by higher iron ore prices, has narrowed the current account deficit to just $2.9 billion in the March quarter, the lowest percentage of GDP since 1979. Several economists upgraded their GDP forecasts following the strong net exports data as well … Continue reading
(5 June 2019, AFR, p5, Michael Bleby and Nick Lenaghan) ‘Tuesday’s rate cut continued the recent run of good news for a property industry already boosted by the Coalition’s return to power and a loosening by the banking regulator of mortgage serviceability requirements. “It’s the third measure in the same number of weeks providing a … Continue reading
(5 June 2019, AFR, p1, John Kehoe, Senior Writer) ‘Philip Lowe is ushering in an unprecedented era of ultra-easy monetary policy and has signalled he will again “adjust” interest rates even lower within months. Reassuringly, the historic cash rate cut on Tuesday to 1.25 per cent reflects that the Reserve Bank of Australia is most … Continue reading
(5 June 2019, The Age, MONEY supplement, p2, Marcus Padley, Money columnist) ‘The election result was very good news for the residential property market. For the past two years, since the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority introduced tighter lending regulations and the banks were paralysed by the royal commission, the turnaround for processing a new housing … Continue reading
(4 June 2019, The Age, Business, p23, Stephen Bartholomeusz, Senior business columnist) ‘Global supply chains are extremely complex and sophisticated ecosystems, so it isn’t surprising that Donald Trump’s love of tariffs is having some quite complex effects. Until last week, with the trade war confined largely to China, there was an obvious response for those … Continue reading
(4 June 2019, AFR, p31, Ingrid Fuary-Wagner, Reporter) ‘Home values rose in the Sydney market in the 10 days following the federal election, a signal that the long-awaited turnaround in the two-year property slump may already be underway. As a succession of positive news events reverberated through the weak market in the second half of … Continue reading
(4 June 2019, AFR, p27, Anirban Nag and Subhadip Sircar) ‘Indian investors already facing a much-anticipated central bank decision this week will now have to juggle the implications of an economic soft patch and Donald Trump making good on his trade threat against the nation. Growth cooled to 5.8 per cent in the first three … Continue reading
(4 June 2019, AFR, p27, Brad Thompson, Reporter) ‘The odds are stacked against Australia producing anywhere near an average grain crop this winter, according to agribusiness specialist Rabobank. The bank’s Australian 2019 Winter Crop Outlook warns dry conditions across much of the country have affected seeding as time runs out for farmers to put in … Continue reading
(4 June 2019, AFR, p11, Mark Ludlow) ‘Soaring gas prices mean Victorian food processor Kagome is on the cusp of no longer being economically sustainable, its chief executive Jason Fritsch says. Although the focus of last week’s APPEA conference was again about boosting supply in NSW and Victoria, manufacturers in southern states are struggling to … Continue reading
(4 June 2019, AFR, p8, Matthew Cranston, Reporter) ‘The Australian dollar jumped as much as 0.3 per cent following the release of official business inventory and profit data on Monday giving economists confidence Wednesday’s economic growth figures would be in line with forecasts. Business inventories in the first quarter increased 0.7 per cent, outpacing market … Continue reading
(3 June 2019, AFR, p34, by: Shawna Kwan) ‘In the world’s most-expensive real estate market, the sky’s the limit. Property prices in Hong Kong reached an all-time high Friday after relentless gains over the past three months. Home values in the city have now broken their previous record set last August, Centaline data show, making … Continue reading
(3 June 2019, AFR, p10, Jacob Greber United States Correspondent) ‘Washington | As with the British Empire before it began its inexorable decline, the sun no longer sets on Donald Trump’s tariff wars. In a sharp escalation late last week the President stunned pretty much everyone by announcing a rising schedule of tariffs on Mexico … Continue reading
(3 June 2019, AFR, p8, Su-Lin Tan and Nick Lenaghan) ‘Clearance rates have firmed in Sydney and Melbourne as more buyers head out to auctions, buoyed by signs of stimulus in the market and ahead of the winter slowdown. Sydney’s preliminary clearance rate hit a healthy 66.1 per cent, compared to last week’s 62.1 per … Continue reading
(1 June 2019, AFR, online, David Biller and Eric Martin) ‘A surprise tariff threat couldn’t have come at a worse time for Mexico’s already shrinking economy. The move could tip Mexico into recession, and at the same time force the central bank to boost interest rates to rein in inflation. In a country highly dependent … Continue reading
(1 June 2019, AFR, online, Jeremy Herron and Vildana Hajric) ‘New York | US stocks extended a weekly loss to the worst since Christmas, while Treasuries rallied a fourth day as the Trump administration’s trade spats intensified. Oil tumbled. The S&P 500 also capped its worst month of the year, bringing its May decline past … Continue reading
[COMMENT: I can’t help but think that “buying the dip” now, as explained below, is potentially very dangerous – just in case the current confirmed downtrend in global share markets continues, as some pundits expect. We remember the Dow Theory comments on this – a downtrend is a downtrend and is expected to continue, until … Continue reading
(1 June 2019, AFR, online, Jeremy Herron and Vildana Hajric) ‘New York | US stocks extended a weekly loss to the worst since Christmas, while Treasuries rallied a fourth day as the Trump administration’s trade spats intensified. Oil tumbled. The S&P 500 also capped its worst month of the year, bringing its May decline past … Continue reading
(31 May 2019, AFR, online, Duncan Hughes) ‘Borrowing rates have crashed through the 3 per cent benchmark to record lows as lenders aggressively compete for residential mortgage market share amid improving market sentiment and the prospect of easier lending conditions. The new one-year fixed rate of 2.99 per cent from Greater Bank, a NSW-based mutual, … Continue reading
(30 April 2019, AFR, p31, Larry Schlesinger, Reporter) ‘One in four new home buyers in Sydney and Melbourne is defaulting on their housing lot purchases due mainly to financing and valuation shortfalls, forcing developers to resell these lots in a market where monthly sales rates have hit seven-year lows, new figures show.’ Read more at … Continue reading
