(18 August 2018, AFR, p32, by William McInnes) ‘Despite a volatile week for global markets, the Australian sharemarket has closed the week with a fresh 10-year high, rising on the strength of strong earnings results. The S&P/ASX 200 index rose 60.8 points, or 1 per cent, this week to close at 6339.2, despite base metals prices tumbling … Continue reading
(18 August 2018, AFR, p29, by Patrick Commins) ‘It’s like the set-up for a horror movie [in a husky, deep voice]: “Something is stalking the global financial markets, picking off trades one by one, leaving a trail of losses in its wake.” Turkey is the latest victim. We can only watch in morbid fascination the goring … Continue reading
(18 August 2018, AFR, p12, by Jacob Greber) ‘The Trump administration and China will next week resume trade talks for the first time in more than two months, elevating hopes a resolution can be found before the worsening tit-for-tat tariff war does lasting damage. In news that coincided with the benchmark US stock market surging by … Continue reading
(17 August 2018, The Age, Business, p29, by William McInnes) ‘The Australian sharemarket shook off a global commodity plunge, closing the day flat despite continued uncertainty in emerging markets.’ <snipped…> ‘On Wednesday night commodity prices collapsed amid threats of a spreading financial contagion in emerging markets and the strengthening US dollar. Base, precious and bulk … Continue reading
(17 August 2018, The Age, Business, p25, Harold Mitchell) ‘Car sales are dropping. July sales were down 8 per cent and followed May and June which recorded reduced volumes on the previous year. My researcher and forecaster Charlie gets very excited about car sales as an economic indicator and he tells me we are experiencing … Continue reading
[COMMENT: Are there more underyling issues in the European Union?] (17 August 2018, The Age, p10, Nick Miller) ‘London: “In ten years the Morandi Bridge will collapse… and we will remember the name of whoever said ‘no’ [to a bypass].” These were the words of a frustrated industry leader in Genoa, back in 2012.’ <snipoped…> ‘By … Continue reading
(17 August 2018, The Age, p5, by Eryk Bagshaw) ‘The unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest rate in nearly six years, spurring the Turnbull government to claim credit for the underlying economic performance. The figures show the drop from 5.4 per cent to 5.3 per cent, its lowest level since November 2012, is mostly … Continue reading
(17 August 2018, AFR, p36, by Aaron Patrick) ‘West Australian wheat farmers are among those making hay – some literally – from the east coast drought. A near-perfect combination of plentiful rain, high prices and extra demand from a parched NSW and Queensland could generate almost $1 million average income this year for each of … Continue reading
(17 August 2018, AFR, p31, by Sarah Turner) ‘Amid a plunge in commodity prices on emerging markets turmoil and the threat of a trade war, fund managers are preaching calm on the prospects for the ASX-listed mining sector. After a sell-off in London and New York overnight, BHP, Rio Tinto and South32 dropped more than … Continue reading
(17 August 2018, AFR, p29) ‘New York/London | Emerging markets tumbled by the most in six months on Wednesday and remained weak on Thursday, slumping into a bear market as investors were spooked by a commodity price rout, currency turmoil and disappointing results from one of China’s technology giants. In spite of a recovery in … Continue reading
(17 August 2018, AFR, p29, by The Lex Column) ‘Everyone likes to use historical markers now and again. Maybe that photo on your internet bio is a few years old. Maybe you still reach for trousers with a 32-inch waist, which your belly no longer accommodates. The decision by Turkey’s financial regulator to allow its … Continue reading
(17 August 2018, AFR, p19, by Peter Ker) ‘BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto have delayed the threat of a strike at their Escondida mine, in a development that could put further short-term pressure on the sliding copper price. Copper prices have slipped by more than 20 per cent in the past two months, and some believed … Continue reading
(17 August 2018, AFR, p7, by Patrick Commins) ‘Australia’s unemployment rate hit its lowest level in close to six years, as a surprise loss of 3900 jobs in July was more than offset by a fall in the participation rate. The key jobless gauge fell to 5.3 per cent in July, data from the Australian … Continue reading
(16 August 2018, AFR, p44, by Nisha Gopalan) ‘Hong Kong’s banks are finally raising mortgage rates. This won’t stem price gains in the world’s most expensive city for real estate. Already up 14 per cent this year, Hong Kong’s home prices now overshadow those of New York and London relative to incomes. A key reason … Continue reading
(16 August 2018, AFR, p43, by Nick Lenaghan) ‘Deals in retail property over the 2018 financial year hit $9.87 billion, a record total after increasing almost 50 per cent on the previous year. The hefty transaction flow came despite ongoing concerns at the broader impacts of increasing e-commerce on bricks and mortar retail real estate … Continue reading
(16 August 2018, AFR, p41, by Su-Lin Tan) ‘Households in western Sydney changing from interest-only to principal-and-interest loans are selling out as they struggle to meet higher repayments, but they may struggle to find the right price unless they are prepared to meet the market. Selling agents are starting to reveal the truth behind recent … Continue reading
(16 August 2018, AFR, p40, by Michael Bleby) ‘Detached housing construction likely rose to its highest level in 18 years over the four quarters to June, as demand triggered by the growing population more than offset a small decline in apartment starts. In its latest forecasts published on Wednesday, the Housing Industry Association said commencements … Continue reading
(16 August 2018, AFR, p35, by Larry Schlesinger) ‘Speculators who hoped to get rich on a boom in Melbourne land prices are “panicking” as settlements loom and they can’t find developers to on-sell their sites to, according to Resi Ventures’s Khurram Saeed, who has been developing for 15 years. Mr Saeed said he was getting … Continue reading
(16 August 2018, AFR, p33, by Vesna Poljak) ‘A worsening of drought conditions in Australia could put market forecasts for economic growth at risk warns Citigroup, wiping more than half a percentage point from GDP growth in 2018-19 assuming the economy experiences a 20 per cent fall in farm production. The last time farm GDP … Continue reading
(16 August 2018, AFR, p31, by Mohamed El-Erian) ‘The temptation for experienced emerging market investors is to respond to the Turkey-induced sell-off by using a game plan that has worked for many years. But before buying baskets of EM bonds and currencies, an important fact needs absorbing: Turkey’s policy response has so far had little … Continue reading
(16 August 2018, AFR, p15, by Carlotta Gall) ‘Prices have soared on imported goods, scaring buyers and sellers. Sales are off as Turks delay purchases or cut back. Everyone is quoting the exchange rate, feverishly calculating what to do with his or her savings, large and small, and watching the price of goods daily.’ Read … Continue reading
(16 August 2018, AFR, p15, by Viriya Singgih and Tassia Sipahutar) ‘Jakarta | Indonesia’s central bank surprised most economists by raising its benchmark interest rate a fourth time since May, moving swiftly to contain the volatility sweeping across emerging markets and curb a slide in its currency. The seven-day reverse repurchase rate was raised to … Continue reading
(16 August 2018, AFR, p14, by Kevin Yao) ‘Beijing | China’s state planner pledged on Wednesday to keep debt levels under control even as Beijing rolls out fresh stimulus to support the stumbling economy as a trade war with the US deepens. The comments by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) came a day … Continue reading
[COMMENTS: Reading between the lines in this article, one might start to think that there are serious financial problems in the EU.] (16 August 2018, AFR, p13, by Gregory Viscusi) ‘Paris | Deputy Premier Matteo Salvini and his allies seized on the collapse of a bridge in northern Italy to question whether their country should … Continue reading
(15 August 2018, AFR, p25, by John Authers) ‘When attempting to cure contagion, it is necessary to tell the difference between symptoms and causes. And it looks as though Turkey’s financial crisis is only a very severe symptom of the contagion that is moving through emerging market currencies. The underlying cause appears to be the … Continue reading
(15 August 2018, AFR, p25, by Roger Blitz and Jonathan Wheatley) ‘As European stock markets bounced from their lows late on Monday, it was tempting to write off the global ramifications of Turkey’s currency crisis. While the relatively small size of the Turkish economy — it accounts for 1 per cent of global gross domestic … Continue reading
(15 August 2018, AFR, p12, by Cheng Fang and Kevin Yao) ‘Beijing |China’s economy is showing further signs of cooling as the US prepares to impose even tougher trade tariffs, with investment in the first seven months of the year slowing to a record low and retail sales softening, data showed on Tuesday. Fixed-asset investment … Continue reading
(15 August 2018, AFR, p11, by Javier Blas) ‘London | When Thailand devalued its currency two decades ago, few in global commodity markets took note. Within a year, the crisis morphed into an emerging-market rout that eviscerated the price of everything from crude oil to copper. Fast forward to today and Turkey is presenting a … Continue reading
(15 August 2018, The Age, Business, p35, by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard) ‘The famous Dornbusch’s Law of financial crises is that they take longer to hit than you think, but then unfold much faster than you ever thought possible. Every hedge fund in London knew that Turkey was an accident waiting to happen. It was odds-on favourite … Continue reading
(14 August 2018, AFR, p34, by Jill Ward) ‘House prices in Britain fell for a fifth month in a row in July, the longest stretch of declines since the global financial crisis. Values fell 0.2 per cent from June, bringing the average price for a home to £302,251 ($529,000), Acadata said in a report. London … Continue reading
(14 August 2018, AFR, p28, by Patrick Commins) ‘Anybody with a vague interest in global economic affairs has known for years that Turkey was a country headed for trouble.’ <snipped…> ‘Economists now expect a recession in Turkey and fret over the possibility of a banking crisis. Investors worry the Turks’ troubles will spread across emerging … Continue reading
(14 August 2018, AFR, p26, Reuters) ‘SINGAPORE (Reuters) – Singapore’s economy grew slower than initial estimates in the April-June period on a quarter-on-quarter basis, revised data showed on Monday, as the government flagged a likely moderation in growth in the second half. The city-state’s Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said retaliatory tariffs between the … Continue reading
(13 August 2018, AFR, p31, by Michael Bleby) ‘Construction of inner city apartments nationally has nearly halved over the past year as banks have tightened credit and developers held back from starting new projects, JLL’s latest Apartment Market report shows.’ Read more at AFR.com (might need AFR login access, or try: AFR.com/trial)
(13 August 2018, AFR, p19, by Owen Walker) ‘London |Investors have pulled billions of euros from Europe’s biggest absolute return funds this year as sentiment has turned against a strategy once heralded as the future of active asset management. The controversial move by GAM, the Swiss asset manager, to prevent clients withdrawing money from its … Continue reading
(13 August 2018, AFR, p9, Bloomberg) ‘Istanbul/Ankara |Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is showing no signs of backing down in a standoff with the US that rattled markets. As investors worry about Turkey sliding toward a full-blown financial crisis, the big question now is how far the pain may spread.’ <snipped…> ‘A plunge in the … Continue reading
(13 August 2018, AFR, p7, by Su-Lin Tan) ‘The Melbourne auction scene is dismal with the general number of bidders now down to “one or none”, buyer’s agent Morrell and Koren’s Emma Bloom says. Despite being the nation’s strongest auction market, Melbourne’s auction volume has plunged year on year down to…’ Read more at AFR.com … Continue reading
(13 August 2018, AFR, p7, by Su-Lin Tan) ‘There was the good, the bad and the ugly on display at Sydney auctions this past weekend but if you’re a buyer it was all good. Buyers are, finally, the kids in a well-stocked candy store. The Australian Financial Review attended several inner city and suburban auctions … Continue reading
(11 August 2018, BBC News online) ‘President Donald Trump has doubled US tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminium, as the precipitous fall of the Turkish lira accelerates. In a tweet, Mr Trump said the currency was weak against “our very strong dollar”, adding that “US relations with Turkey are not good at this time”. Turkish … Continue reading
(9 August 2018, AFR, p34, by Su-Lin Tan) ‘An uptick in Google searches for housing could indicate a reviving interest in home buying, the new “ANZ Housing Search Index” shows. Google search trends on topics relating to property buying, such as “stamp duties”, “mortgage loan comparison” and “auctions today” have been reduced matching the downward … Continue reading
(9 August 2018, AFR, p34, by Michael Bleby) ‘Investor home loans fell to their lowest level in nearly five years in June, paving the way for housing prices to weaken further as investors pulled back from the market in search of better returns elsewhere. New mortgage finance commitments to investors fell 2.7 per cent from … Continue reading
(8 August 2018, AFR, p39, by Michael Bleby) ‘Apartment building contracted at its fastest pace in five years in July and new orders also hit the brakes, prompting warnings the slowing sector could drag the wider construction industry lower. The latest Performance of Construction Index, based on a survey of industry participants, showed the attached … Continue reading
(8 August 2018, AFR, p39, by Nick Lenaghan) ‘Reduced spending on clothing and footwear combined with a growing market share in spending taken by e-commerce will weigh on shopping centre income over the next decade, according to BIS Oxford Economics. Adding to those headwinds are the cyclically weaker retail environment and the prospect of softening yields, or falling capital values, to … Continue reading
(8 August 2018, AFR, p13, by Asli Kandemir) ‘Istanbul | Investors are watching closely to see whether Turkish banks will maintain access to the foreign funding they need to keep economic activity humming, as the economy is battered by US sanctions, rating cuts, concern about a looming fine on a state bank and a plunging … Continue reading
(8 August 2018, AFR, p6, by Patrick Commins) ‘The Reserve Bank of Australia provided another vote of confidence in the economy on Tuesday, but gave no hint that above-trend growth and an improving labour market would translate into tighter monetary policy any time soon. At its monetary policy meeting the RBA maintained its official cash … Continue reading
(7 August 2018, AFR, p31, by Larry Schlesinger) ‘A record $19 billion worth of commercial towers changed hands in the 2018 financial year as the Australian office market “edged” towards the bottom of the yield cycle, according to figures compiled by Colliers International. The figures were 46 per cent higher than the prior financial year and were dominated by…’ Read … Continue reading
(7 August 2018, AFR, p26, by Patrick Commins) ‘The bottom dropping out of the market for new cars is an early and worrying sign that falling house prices are starting to have an impact on Australians’ spending decisions. Aussie car sales fell 7.8 per cent in July versus the same month in 2017, data from … Continue reading
(6 August 2018, AFR, p32, by Nick Lenaghan) ‘Rental stress is falling in the wake of cooling housing markets and falling rents, ME’s latest Household Financial Comfort Report shows. The finding is a rare spot of bright news in the biannual report, which otherwise noted that more people are feeling strapped for cash and tapping … Continue reading
(25 July 2018, AFR, p39, by Nouriel Roubini) ‘All the economic positives of the Trump presidency are quickly being swamped by the negatives. For the first time in a decade, stagflation is a serious risk.’ Read more at AFR.com (might need AFR login access, or try: AFR.com/trial)
(25 July 2018, AFR, p36, by Brad Thompson) ‘NSW farmer Richard Rice is typical of thousands of others across Australia who have put their businesses into survival mode. The family’s mixed farming operation near Parkes in the state’s central west is doing everything it can to cut costs. They scaled back this year’s cropping program because … Continue reading
(25 July 2018, AFR, p26, by Karen Maley) ‘…speculation about a possible BOJ policy shift triggered a sell-off in Japanese bonds on Monday, with the yield on 10-year bonds jumping to 0.08 per cent, up from 0.03 per cent at the end of last week. (Bond yields rise as prices fall). Now, in normal circumstances, … Continue reading
(25 July 2018, AFR, p11, by Judy Chen) ‘Shanghai | China unveiled a package of targeted policies to boost domestic demand as simmering trade tensions threaten to worsen the nation’s economic slowdown. From a tax cut aimed at fostering research spending spending to special bonds for infrastructure investment, the measures announced late Monday following a … Continue reading
