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ABOUT Robert Brain’s Sharemarket blog

Robert’s Aussie Business Baromoter web log is his own personal diary record of relevant news stories to help keep up-to-date with the key happenings around the world that give us hints about the health of global economies.

By following the key events on financial markets around the world, Robert won’t be surprised when the markets react. Whether we maintain a gut feeling about the bullishness (or bearishness) of markets around the world, or we analyse the news stories in detail and calculate whether there is a leaning to overall bullishness (or overall bearishness), following these news stories can be beneficial.

To keep up to date with key business and financial news, Robert reads the Australian Financial Review newspaper daily, and The Age (Monday to Friday). He captures the headline, and the first paragraph or two, of key news stories, and posts them into this web log with relevant key words. This reference library of searchable news snippets has built up into a journal that gives clues about the global business and financial world – with particular reference for Australian investors.

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Why is this useful?

In the financial markets these days, it no longer seems sensible to buy and hold investments for the long-term, especially if the investment’s capital value is falling. We saw in the GFC of 2007-2013+ that even the share price of blue chip stocks was not insulated from significant falls. Ask yourself if it seems sensible – www.sensibleinvesting.com.au. You can also read about how blue chips can disappoint.

The finance industry is blind

Many of the finance industry professionals have claimed innocence by saying that “no one could see the great GFC coming” – but that is far from the truth!!

Before the GFC crunch, towards the end of the last big bull market in late 2007, many people with the right training could see the writing on the wall that the bull market was about to crash in a big way. This enabled many of us to liquidate our stocks and move to cash. There were very clear signs of over-heated bull markets in many of the key world markets. One of these is the rather subjective observations of hype that are evident in the daily press at times like this. Not to mention the key warning signals in the price charts – interpreted using classical technical analysis (remembering that price charts summarise the underlying opinions and emotions of the market participants, so every price chart tells a story, and if we can read the stories in the charts we are a big step ahead).

Watch the news

So, it is useful to keep an eye on the published news stories. The key stories of the day can often give us a subjective gut-feeling for the overall general state of the economy – in both a bull market environment and a bear market.

From time to time, depending on the state of the markets, the “Market Observations” posted in this ShareMarket blog might be mostly bullish (or mostly bearish) snippets from the daily news, posted as a running summary. During bear market times, these posts might not seem nice to read; but they can help us stay close to reality. When the market appears to be moving higher, if the news is all bleak, then there might be more bleak times ahead.

When to buy

But, we know that the right time to be buying cheap investments is when everyone else is hurting. So, the bad news might give clues about when to think about buying. However, we need to be careful not to buy too early, only to see the market start another downward leg. Remember one of the key tenets of Dow Theory regarding down trends on the price charts.

About Brainy’s Share Market Toolbox:

Investors and traders:- To help with the right tools, Brainy’s Share Market Toolbox is a true arsenal of weapons to help you tackle the share market. There is a lot of free material. Learn how to interpret share price charts so that you can develop your own strategies, or learn from the stategies of others.

Special features: Funda-Technical Analysis (a sensible blend of fundamental and technical analysis), and Contrarian Investing Redefined.

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