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(26 April 2024, AFR, p19, Anthony Macdonald) – I often post here about the funds management industry, and say that I don’t invest in managed funds, and here is another interesting article on the topic. “When easy money stops flowing, bean counters put their fund manager’s model through a business lens and start asking hard … Continue reading
(8 January 2024, AFR, p23, Karen Maley) What do we think of share market ‘forecasters’? Here is one professional opinion: “The immediate risk for financial markets this year is that the Federal Reserve is much slower to cut interest rates than investors expect.” “Last year proved a humiliating one for the pundits – the market … Continue reading
(1 January 2024, The Age, p25) What do we really think about the ‘opinions’ and forecasts of economists regarding the economy and financial markets? Here’s an interesting article on that topic. “This time last year, 85 per cent of economists in one poll predicted a recession in 2023 – and that was an optimistic take … Continue reading
(2 October 2023, AFR, p19, Cecile Lefort, Markets reporter) – Here are the results of another quarterly economists’ survey from AFR. As I’ve said before, I honestly don’t know how useful this information is to the average investor, and equities trader. “Economists have again pushed back the timing of the Reserve Bank’s first expected interest … Continue reading
(2 August 2023, AFR, p23, Ben Smythe, contributor) This is rather discomforting news for all those investors who rely on, and trust, the ‘professionals’ in the finance industry. (For an alternative consideration, see the extra text at the bottom of this piece.) “If some of the smartest minds are unable to accurately forecast the future, … Continue reading
(12 April 2023, AFR, p25, James Weir) There has been commentary over the years about economists, their work, and the accuracy of their forecasts. Here is another comment about economists. “Jerome Powell, the US Federal Reserve chairman, last June admitted: “We now understand better how little we understand about inflation.” “That alarming but at least … Continue reading
(30 November, 2022, AFR, p30, Vesna PoljakMarkets editor) – “Fund managers cannot thump the market five years in a row, according to an analysis by S&P Dow Jones Indices, leading it to claim that outperformance by active managers is “relatively short-lived”, if not statistically impossible. “ Read more at AFR.com.
(26 May 2022, AFR, Chanticleer, p48) This article in today’s AFR newspaper is a great warning to investors regarding the so-called “value” stocks which have a current share price well below the value ascribed to the stock by analysts and brokers. “When a veteran Australian equities fund manager was asked to comment on a list … Continue reading
(7 February 2020, AFR, p1, Matthew Cranston, Sarah Turner and Sue Mitchell) ‘Surprising strong consumer spending in the final three months of 2019 has triggered investors to upgrade retail stocks and abandon calls for another interest rate cut this year. The stronger than expected growth in retail trade in the December quarter supports Reserve Bank … Continue reading
(5 February 2020, The Age, p31, David Scutt) ‘The RBA has put its rose-tinted glasses back on, having temporarily removed them late last year, predicting a Goldilocks outcome of stronger economic growth, lower unemployment and a continuation of low inflation in the period ahead. The bank said in its policy announcement today it expects economic … Continue reading
(30 January 2020, AFR, p10, Jacob Greber, United States Correspondent) ‘Washington | The United States will spend most of the 21st century mired in ballooning government debt as a new spending surge and the Trump administration’s tax cuts push this year’s deficit above $US1 trillion ($1.48 trillion). The independent Congressional Budget Office has painted a … Continue reading
(25 January 2020, AFR, p23, Simon Evans, Sue Mitchell, James Fernyhough and Jenny Wiggins) ‘… Goldman Sachs has estimated the bushfire fallout could strip 0.4 per cent off Australia’s GDP, with the international dimension a potentially long-term drag. ‘ <snipped…> ‘A raft of profit downgrades from ASX-listed companies in the retail and tourism sectors in … Continue reading
(17 January 2020, AFR, p11, Jacob Greber, United States Correspondent) ‘Washington | Australian dairy, beef, energy and coal exporters could become collateral damage from Thursday’s historic phase-one US-China trade deal, hailed by Donald Trump as a “landmark” reset to global commerce. In an agreement almost immediately lambasted by critics for its emphasis on managed purchase … Continue reading
(17 January 2020, AFR, p9, Michael Bleby, Senior Reporter) ‘Cautious consumers are using tax refunds and savings from lower borrowing costs to save and reduce debt, rather than putting it back into the retail economy, economists warn. Analysis by UBS economists George Tharenou and Carlos Cacho of Reserve Bank of Australia figures shows credit card … Continue reading
(16 January 2020, AFR, p29, Michael Bleby, Senior Reporter) ‘Housing construction is set to pick up in the second half of this year, after sentiment around residential construction posted its biggest lift in six years on the back of an improving property market and access to credit. The ANZ/Property Council of Australia March 2020 survey … Continue reading
[COMMENTS: Because of my own distrust of managed funds in general, including superannuation funds, I always post reports like this one below with some comments like the following. It will be interesting to see how these funds perform over the next couple of years because it is common for a superior fund one year to … Continue reading
(15 January 2020, AFR, p11, Michael Smith, China Correspondent) ‘Shanghai | China’s slowing economy has been given a temporary reprieve from Donald Trump’s tariff ceasefire, but is not out of the woods yet, economist have warned. Leading economists said on Tuesday that the risk of further confrontation with the US on trade, along with geopolitical … Continue reading
(8 January 2020, AFR, p13, Jonathan Shapiro, Senior Reporter) ‘There is no more defining moment in Australia’s economic history than in May 1986, when then federal treasurer Paul Keating told radio host John Laws the nation was in danger of becoming a “banana republic”. For the three decades that followed those two words resonated among … Continue reading
(10 January 2020, AFR, p25, Chris Giles) ‘London | The easing of trade tensions between the US and China is unlikely to lead to a rapid improvement in the global economy, the World Bank has said as it released a gloomy set of forecasts. The development bank downgraded the growth outlook for most countries over … Continue reading
(8 January 2020, AFR, p6, Matthew Cranston, Economics correspondent) ‘Economic growth will take a 0.3 percentage point hit over the December and January quarters due to Australia’s bushfire crisis, according to the latest analysis from Goldman Sachs. As the fires have raged, financial markets have priced in a higher chance of another 0.25 percentage point … Continue reading
(8 January 2020, AFR, p1, Vesna Poljak and Hannah Wootton) ‘The bushfire emergency has hit the outlook for the jobs market and caused consumer confidence to slump to its lowest level in four years in the first indication of the toll the deadly crisis is taking on economic activity, amid fears of worsening conditions later … Continue reading
(4 January 2020, AFR, p7, Liz Main, Reporter) ‘China and India will eclipse the United States as world economic super powers and Asia will account for 35 per cent of the world’s gross domestic product by 2030, according to research by KPMG. “It will be in the next decade, for sure,” said Doug Ferguson, head … Continue reading
(3 January 2020, AFR, p10, Aradhana Aravindan and John Geddie) ‘Singapore | Singapore’s economy expanded at its slowest pace in a decade last year as its manufacturing sector contracted, preliminary data showed on Thursday, though fourth-quarter data firmed expectations for a modest recovery in 2020. The export-oriented economy has been hit hard by the drawn-out … Continue reading
(27 December 2019, AFR, p6, Nila Sweeney, Reporter) ‘Home values in Australia’s biggest cities are on course to record up to 14 per cent growth in 2020 as low mortgage rates and easier lending standards unleash buyer demand. But analysts warn worsening housing affordability and more homes on the market could cut the bull run … Continue reading
(20 December 2019, AFR, p30, Praveen Menon) ‘New Zealand’s economy grew at a faster-than-expected pace in the third quarter boosted by robust retail spending, the government said on Thursday, briefly sending the Kiwi dollar higher. The statistics office said New Zealand’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.7 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the three months to … Continue reading
(20 December 2019, AFR, p3, Matthew Cranston, Economics correspondent) ‘Australian households have never been wealthier, due to house prices rising and mortgages getting cheaper, but nevertheless, they are spending less. The latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the average household wealth increased by $10,698 in the September quarter to an all-time … Continue reading
(19 December 2019, AFR, p6, Matthew Cranston, Economics correspondent) ‘Resource and energy export earnings are forecast to reach a record $281 billion this financial year before easing back due to softer prices, according to the government’s official resources and energy forecaster. Record highs driven by iron ore, LNG and coal are set to ease back … Continue reading
(18 December 2019, AFR, p19, Sue Mitchell, Senior Reporter) ‘Retailers are counting on a surge in spending over the next week after enduring “standard” sales volumes in December to date. The week before Christmas is usually the busiest of the year for bricks and mortar retailers as consumers stock up on food and drinks and … Continue reading
(17 December 2019, AFR, p4, Matthew Cranston, Economics correspondent) ‘Forecasts for economic growth, inflation, unemployment and wages have all taken a hit in the latest budget update, placing pressure on the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates in February. Before the budget update, financial markets were pricing in a 39 per cent chance of a … Continue reading
(16 December 2019, AFR, p24, Sarah Turner, Reporter) ‘A partial trade deal between the US and China and a thumping Conservative win in the UK election appear to have effectively placed a floor under the global economy, underpinning markets as they head into the new year. Investor anxiety had been rising ahead of the British … Continue reading
Aussie Sharemarket Barometer 