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Brainy's Share Market Toolbox. Read the honest truth about the sharemarket. Develop or fine tune your investing/trading strategies using share price charts (technical analysis), or learn about the investment strategies of others. Melbourne (Australia) based - supporting share market investors and traders to build wealth through smarter investing using my Share Market Toolbox arsenal of weapons to tackle the market.
robertbrain has written 9123 posts for Aussie Business Barometer

19 April 2019 (TheAge) – Jobs surge past expectations but unemployment ticks up

(19 April 2019, The Age, p12, By Swati Pandey) ‘A bumper run in jobs extended to March and more people went looking for work, official data on Thursday showed, a sign the labour market remains strong despite a small uptick in the unemployment rate. The local dollar jumped about a quarter of a US cent … Continue reading

19 April 2019 (TheAge) – The market shift that has given Trump’s re-election chances a big boost

(19 April 2019, The Age, Business, p27, By Heather Long) ‘A noticeable shift has taken place on Wall Street and among many economists and business leaders in recent weeks: Fears of an imminent recession have faded and been replaced with cautious optimism, especially about 2020, a trend that bodes well for US President Donald Trump … Continue reading

18 April 2019 (AFR) – How to position your portfolio for recession

(18 April 2019, AFR, p58, Mark Draper) ‘Investors should pay attention to the next few months of leading economic indicators, and position their investments accordingly. With the graphs of leading Australian economic indicators taking on the shape of a waterfall, investors would be wise to dust off the play book about how to invest in … Continue reading

18 April 2019 (AFR) – Melbourne buyers face valuations shortfall

(18 April 2019, AFR, p49, Larry Schlesinger) ‘New home buyers who purchased Melbourne housing lots at the peak of the market are scrambling for cash to settle their contracts or risk defaulting due to valuations coming in tens of thousands of dollars below what they agreed to pay 12 to 18 months ago. The valuation … Continue reading

18 April 2019 (AFR) – China’s growth rate stabilises after earlier wobbles

(18 April 2019, AFR, p14, Michael Smith) ‘Shanghai | China’s growth stabilised at 6.4 per cent in the first quarter, helped by improved factory output in March and stimulus from Beijing aimed at arresting a broad slowdown in the world’s second-biggest economy. The growth in gross domestic product (GDP) matched the fourth quarter of last … Continue reading

18 April 2019 (AFR) – ASX edges higher despite healthcare sell-off

(18 April 2019, AFR, online, William McInnes) ‘Australian shares closed slightly higher on Thursday as broad market optimism outweighed heavy losses in the healthcare sector. The S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 3.4 points, or 0.1 per cent, to 6259 while the broader All Ordinaries slid by 0.4 points to 6349.9.’ Read more at (might need … Continue reading

18 April 2019 (AFR) – Can the 2019 equity boom last? – Markets return to ‘assisted living’ as investors shun rally

(18 April 2019, AFR, p46,  Patrick Commins) ‘After the best start to Aussie shares since 1991, investors are wondering whether this heralds a new beginning or the restart of an old, unwelcome trend. It might not feel like it, but the start of 2019 has witnessed a boom of historical proportions on the ASX. A … Continue reading

17 April 2019 (AFR) – Market sees October rate cut as a done deal

(17 April 2019, AFR, p29,  Vesna Poljak) ‘The futures market has elevated the chance of an October interest rate cut to a done deal, and bumped up the probability of an August cut to 76 per cent, after the Reserve Bank revealed worsening unemployment and below-target inflation would trigger policy easing. In outlining its thinking … Continue reading

17 April 2019 (AFR) – Morgan Stanley sees ASX200 dropping to 5800 by year’s end

(17 April 2019, AFR, p29, Sarah Turner) ‘The Australian mining sector is now worth more than the banking sector but, even with a strong performance from the country’s top resource companies, Morgan Stanley’s Chris Nicol doubts the ASX can extend a strong first-quarter into the end of the year. Morgan Stanley expects the S&P/ASX200 Index … Continue reading

17 April 2019 (AFR) – Strong quarterly earnings lift ASX

(17 April 2019, AFR, p30, William McInnes) ‘Australian shares closed higher on Tuesday, as a slew of positive quarterly earnings offset losses from the energy sector. The S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 26 points, or 0.4 per cent, to 6277.4 while the broader All Ordinaries advanced 24.4 points, or 0.4 per cent, to 6372.3.’ Read more … Continue reading

16 April 2019 (AFR) – More than the RBA: NAB expects 18pc decline in housing investment

(16 April 2019, AFR, p38, Michael Bleby) ‘Australia’s decline in housing new investment is likely to be twice as deep as the Reserve Bank expects, with a dip close to 20 per cent over the next two years, National Australia Bank says. While the decline will still leave home-building – which has surged in capacity … Continue reading

16 April 2019 (AFR) – Another warning is flashing on Asia’s 11 per cent stockmarket rally

(16 April 2019, AFR, p29, Divya Balji) ‘The wall of worry surrounding Asia’s double-digit stock market growth this year just got another impetus: equity ETFs inflows have dwindled. Despite a 9 per cent increase to $US502 billion ($700 billion) in assets under management for Asia equity exchange-traded funds so far this year, net inflows have … Continue reading

16 April 2019 (AFR) – The $US18b electric-car bubble at risk of bursting in China

(16 April 2019, AFR, p12, Tian Ying) ‘Beijing | An iPhone assembler, e-commerce emporium and real-estate developer typically don’t compete in the same business – except when it comes to electric vehicles in China. That’s because of a seismic shift toward EVs, which has spurred billions of dollars in investments by traditional carmakers, startups and … Continue reading

15 April 2019 (AFR) – JPMorgan boss rules out US recession, ‘bullish’ conditions return

(15 April 2019, AFR, p22, Vesna Poljak) ‘A rally in Wall Street banks on Friday following JPMorgan’s better than feared quarterly earnings lifted market confidence as Jamie Dimon declared that US growth “could go on for years” and there will be no recession before 2022. Mr Dimon, who presides over the largest bank in the … Continue reading

15 April 2019 (AFR) – Climate change hits supply chains: Allianz

(15 April 2019, AFR, p19, James Fernyhough) ‘A worldwide increase in natural catastrophes is already hitting global supply chains and causing a spike in business interruption insurance claims, a senior executive with Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty has warned. AGCS chief regions and markets officer Sinead Browne said this trend, which she directly linked to … Continue reading

15 April 2019 (AFR) – ‘Cheap as chips’: Sellers slash prices 20pc

(15 April 2019, AFR, p8, Duncan Hughes) ‘Weekend property sales were boosted as sellers in inner Sydney and Melbourne cut prices by up to 20 per cent to seal deals in sluggish markets. Overall auction clearance rates held above 50 per cent for the fourth consecutive week in the last big weekend of sales before … Continue reading

13 April 2019 (AFR) – Patient central banks bolster ASX gains

(13 April 2019, AFR, p33, William McInnes) ‘Australian shares closed the week higher on Friday, as the equity market responded favourably to the European Central Bank and US Federal Reserve remaining patient on policy. The S&P/ASX 200 Index moved 70 points, or 1.1 per cent higher to 6251.3 this week while the broader All Ordinaries … Continue reading

12 April 2019 (AFR) – ‘Rocky waters’ for global middle class as incomes flatline

(12 April 2019, AFR, p37, Valentina Romei) ‘London | The middle classes in developed nations are under pressure from stagnant income growth, rising lifestyle costs and unstable jobs, and this risks fuelling political instability, a new report by the OECD has warned. The club of 36 rich nations said middle-income workers had seen their standard … Continue reading

12 April 2019 (AFR) – EU leaders offer six-month lifeline to beleaguered Britain

(12 April 2019, AFR, p23, Hans van Leeuwen) ‘London | The European Union’s 27 leaders have given Britain until Halloween to find a way out of its intractable Brexit impasse, following a six-hour summit in Brussels on Thursday (AEST). British Prime Minister Theresa May will now return to London to sell the plan to an … Continue reading

12 April 2019 (TheAge,SMH) – ‘Defied all odds’: Australia’s sharemarket continues to shock

(12 April 2019, The Age, Business, p31, By Jackie Edwards) ‘When a country’s economic growth slows, its stock market usually follows suit. Not in Australia. Despite a backdrop of troubling economic signals, the nation’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index rallied almost 10 per cent in the first quarter – its best-ever performance to begin a year … Continue reading

10 April 2019 (AFR,Bloomberg) – Canadian Home Building Rebounds From Deep Freeze: Housing Update

(10 APril 2019, AFR, p39, By: Josh Wingrove and Theophilos Argitis) ‘Canada housing starts rebounded in March from a sluggish performance a month earlier, returning to levels more in line with demographics and highlighting the buoyancy of the nation’s battered real estate market. Builders started an annualized 192,527 homes in March, the Canada Mortgage and … Continue reading

10 April 2019 (AFR) – Home loan arrears jump in January

(10 April 2019, AFR, p34, Su-Lin Tan) ‘The number of owner-occupier home loans in arrears is rising, albeit from a low base, as borrowers struggle over the switch to principal and interest from interest only loans, the latest data from S&P Global Ratings shows. The Standard & Poor’s Performance Index for owner occupier arrears rose … Continue reading

10 April 2019 (AFR) – Australia’s growth rate slowing at twice the speed of peers, says IMF

(10 April 2019, AFR, p12, Jacob Greber) ‘Washington | Australia’s economic growth will slow at almost twice the speed of other advanced nations this year, according to the International Monetary Fund’s latest outlook, which also includes a substantial downgrade to global expansion because of Donald Trump’s tariff wars. Australia’s gross domestic product growth will cool … Continue reading

9 April 2019 (TheAge) – ASX advances on solid US jobs

(9 April 2019, The Age, Business, p29, By William McInnes) ‘Australian shares rebounded from a loss in the back-end of last week on Monday, following a strong session on Wall Street on Friday as stocks rose on the back of a solid US employment report.’ Read more at

9 April 2019 (AFR) – Investors keep 16.2pc of Melbourne apartments vacant

(9 April 2019, AFR, p34, Michael Bleby) ‘The number of vacant investor-owned properties in Melbourne remains high, with as many as 16.2 per cent homes sitting empty, according to the latest Speculative Vacancies report based on 2017 water usage data. The proportion of investment homes using less than 50 litres per day – equivalent to … Continue reading

9 April 2019 (AFR) – Far East picks up Bourke Street development site in $90m deal

(9 April 2019, AFR, p31, Nick Lenaghan) ‘Hong Kong-listed developer Far East Consortium has shrugged off negative sentiment around the housing market to take over a 68-level apartment project in central Melbourne in a $90 million deal. Far East’s move effectively represents the first sign of a big player positioning for the next stage of … Continue reading

9 April 2019 (AFR) – A million tonnes of copper may not be enough

(9 April 2019, AFR, p28, Laura Millan Lombrana and Jack Farchy) ‘Santiago | Giant mines currently under construction will churn out an additional 1 million tonnes of copper through 2023, but that won’t be enough to fully close an expected gap between supply and demand in the next few years. Industry analysts and executives descending … Continue reading

9 April 2019 (AFR) – Oil hits five-month highs amid OPEC-led supply cuts and US sanctions

(9 April 2019, AFR, p28, Henning Gloystein) ‘Singapore |  Oil prices are at their highest level since November, driven up by OPEC’s continued cuts to supply, United States sanctions against Iran and Venezuela, and strong US jobs data. International benchmark Brent futures were at $US70.72 per barrel around midday on Monday (AEST), up US38¢, or … Continue reading

8 April 2019 (AFR) – US stocks brace for grim reporting season

(8 April 2019, AFR, p23, Timothy Moore) ‘First-quarter reporting season begins in the United States this week, with JPMorgan and Wells Fargo first off the rank, and the outlook is not particularly optimistic. Morgan Stanley’s chief US equity strategy Michael Wilson said he expected the March quarter to be the first quarter where year-over-year earnings … Continue reading

8 April 2019 (AFR) – Global economy enters ‘synchronised slowdown’

(8 April 2019, AFR, p21, Chris Giles) ‘The global economy has entered a “synchronised slowdown” which may be difficult to reverse in 2019, according to the latest update of a tracking index compiled by the Brookings Institution think-tank and the Financial Times. Sentiment indicators and economic data across advanced and emerging economies have been deteriorating … Continue reading