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This category contains 23 posts

30 Nov 2018 (AFR) – Fed chairman Jerome Powell triggers market rally, says rates ‘just below’ neutral

[COMMENT: It might be great news to some people that the Dow Jones index jumped 618 points in one day; but take a good look at the chart of the S&P500 index and note that in the big scheme of things this one day rise on the Dow, or the S&P500 is but small when … Continue reading

1 Nov 2017 (AFR) – Bond markets signal better growth outlook

[COMMENT: This article includes some great content, including debunking the old Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH), and discussing the weight of opinion of the real market participants. Commentators and analysts can talk all they like about fair value, and earning forecasts, etc., but if they don’t have their own money in the markets then they are … Continue reading

1 June 2017 (TheAge) – ASX down more than 3 per cent in May and history suggests June recovery unlikely

(1 June 2017, The Age, BusinessDay, p23, Myriam Robin) ‘Investors hoping for a quick rebound in June after May’s ASX declines may be disappointed, with history suggesting they shouldn’t count on a June recovery. The old adage to “sell in May and go away” proved prescient in 2017, with the S&P/ASX200 down 3.4 per cent … Continue reading

1 May 2017 (AFR) – Why emerging market currency bulls should beware in May

[COMMENT: I found this article particularly interesting because it provides some support for the “Sell in May” idea. This is one of the many Share Market GEMs about which I have written in the past. I always felt that there needs to be more reasons for this GEM than simply the northern hemisphere summer. The … Continue reading

23 Dec 2016 (TheAge) – Trump needs to thwart a US recession

(23 December 2016, The Age, BusinessDay, p21, Rich Miller, Bloomberg) ‘Here’s a frightening factoid for Donald Trump as he prepares to take office next month: Every Republican president since World War II has been in power during at least one recession. Of course, as the saying goes, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future … Continue reading

30 Aug 2016 (AFR) – Credit Suisse’s Hasan Tevfik hints the holiday is over for markets

(30 August 2016, AFR, p26, by Philip Baker) ‘It’s that time of the year again when even the most steady and sure-footed investor needs to be ready for anything as the big players come back from the northern summer holiday season. If history is any guide, it could mark…’ <snipped…> ‘As it stands, the so-called … Continue reading

3 May 2016 (AFR) – Will investors sell in May and go away? – Investors to get lead on smart play for May??

(3 May 2016, AFR, p27, by Jessica Sier) ‘There’s an onslaught of data bombarding Australian investors in the first week of May, making it tricky to decide whether historical trends are enough for to “sell in May and go away”, or stick it out during what is traditionally a tough time of year for equities. While … Continue reading

8 Feb 2016 (AFR) – Should ‘yield hogs’ stick their snouts in the hybrid trough?

(8 February 2016, AFR, p21, by Jonathan Shapiro) “Bulls and Bears make money, but the Pigs get slaughtered,” so the old Wall Street adage goes. That serves as a warning that excessive greed is far more perilous than blind pessimism or optimism. But its been adapted more recently to describe the inevitable fate of the … Continue reading

15 Oct 2015 (AFR) – Solid growth is harder than blowing bubbles

(15 October 2015, AFR, p39, by Martin Wolf) ‘It used to be said that when the US sneezed, the world economy caught a cold. This is still true. But now the world economy also catches a cold when China sneezes. It has lost its last significant credit-fuelled engine of demand. The result is almost certain to … Continue reading

8 Aug 2015 (AFR) – Bank fears wipe $37b off ASX200 – ANZ, Westpac, Commonwealth and National banks drop $27 billion in value

(8 August 2015, AFR, p1, by James Eyers and Clancy Yeates) ‘A sudden jump in bad debts and fears dividends will be hit by more capital raisings have caused investors to wipe $27 billion off the value of the big four banks over the past two days. Shares in ANZ Banking Group sank the deepest, plunging by as much 8.5 per … Continue reading

22 June 2105 (TheAge) – IOOF scandal sparks calls for royal commission

(22 June 2015, The Age, BusinessDay, p21, Adele Ferguson and Sarah Danckert) ‘Calls for a royal commission into the finance sector have been renewed following revelations IOOF is facing allegations of misconduct, insider trading, front running, cheating by senior staff and has misrepresented performance numbers on its funds. IOOF’s top brass, including managing director Chris Kelaher, face … Continue reading

5 June 2015 (AFR, FTimes) – In defence of Europe’s long holidays – All work, no play makes Jacques an unproductive boy

[COMMENT: Now this article is just fantastic. This is one of the anecdotal reasons that are given to help justify the Wall Steet cliche “Sell in May and go away”. This story is a must-read.] (5 June 2015, AFR, p21, Sarah Gordon, Financial Times) ‘ ‘Les grandes vacances’ can have a positive impact on productivity, … Continue reading

5 Mar 2015 (AFR) – Farewell to a patient investor – Investment lessons from world’s oldest professional investor Irving Kahn

[COMMENT: I can’t help but share this story, with some great references to good suggestions and ideas from an old investor. There is one particular axiom that concurs with many of the wisest investors today – to protect capital. I didn’t have this particular reference in my list of Share Market GEMs, so I have … Continue reading

13 Jan 2014 (AFR) – January S&P 500 barometer bodes well for the bears

(13 Jan 2014, AFR, p24, Sally Rose) ‘New research has found a strong historical correlation between the January and annual performances of Wall Street’s S&P 500, with the direction of the first five trading days of the year tipped as a reliable indicator of the sharemarket’s performance over the coming 12 months. The research, produced by … Continue reading

10 Aug 2013 (AFR) – Europe takes its summer break

[COMMENT: Very interesting information to help us understand more about the adage “Sell in May and go away”. Here are some snippets of information about the duration of some of the holidays that people take in the European summer.] When the city goes to the beach (10 August 2013, AFR, p13, Emma-Kate Symons) ‘The great … Continue reading

24 July 2013 (TheAge) – Failure to call the market is no fluke

[COMMENT: Here is some confirming evidence that fund managers (and economists in general) cannot get it right very often – but then many retail investors in managed funds might have realised that if they follow their fund’s performance. Find out more in this article below…] (24 July 2013, The Age, MONEY, p3, David Potts) ‘It … Continue reading

10 July 2013 (TheAge) – Certainty isn’t always sexy, but it feels good

[COMMENT: Some very useful insight and comments from Marcus Padley. Weighing up equities versus bonds, and capital returns versus dividend income. An underlying argument for nimble investing comes through here, as well as the view that maybe dividends are not the best tool for income? Read on…] (10 July 2013, The Age, MONEY, p5, Marcus … Continue reading

3 July 2013 (AFR) – Ainsworth Game Technology raises its profit guidance

[COMMENT: Here is a classic case of good news announced to the market, but the share price falls because the good news was not as good as expected.] (3 July 2013, AFR, p19, Jessica Gardner) ‘Ainsworth Game Technology raised earnings guidance due to better sales in Victoria, Asia, South America and to a strong US … Continue reading

24 June 2013 (AFR) – Happy are they who sold in May and went away

(24 June 2013, AFR, p22, Ben Potter) ‘ “Sell in May and go away” was never more apt. Investors who did would be feeling well pleased with themselves. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average and the benchmark S&P500 index have retraced all their gains since the start of May.’ Read more at (might need … Continue reading

1 May 2013 (AFR) – ‘Sell in May’ adage might still hold good

[COMMENT: Sell in May and go away?] (1 May 2013, AFR, p28, Rosie Murray-West) ‘Following old wives’ tales can have extreme consequences. According to popular wisdom you should now be preparing to sell off all of your ­investments.’ ‘The adage “Sell in May and go away, don’t come back till St Leger Day” recalls an era … Continue reading

1 May 2013 (The Age) – Grin and bear it on gloomy May days

[COMMENT: Sell in May and go away?] (1 May 2013, The Age, Money, p3, David Potts) ‘The saying goes that you should ”sell in May and go away” until October, when the prices of shares will be lower and you can buy them back. That could be good advice.’ ‘It sounds like an old wives’ … Continue reading

13 April 2013 (AFR) – April, May sell-off possible for 4th consecutive year

[COMMENT: Sell in May and go away? Confirming what some of us have reported in the press in recent years – see some of the April-May articles published in The Age – this article summarises our market performance at this time of year over the last 3 years, and ponders what might lay in store … Continue reading

2 April 2012 – Forget your shares, just enjoy the Games

[COMMENT:- Share Market GEMs? here are some research findings…] (2 April 2012, The Age, BusinessDay, p7, Matthew Kidman) ‘ ”SELL in May and go away” is one of the oldest and most hackneyed sayings among sharemarket players.’ ‘It refers to the poor performance of the major sharemarkets in the northern hemisphere during their warmer months.’ … Continue reading