You are viewing:-
you're reading...
1.Market Observations, 2.share trading, 2.Strategy

19 June 2017 (AFR) – Positive skew that exists in equity markets – Most sharemarket gains come from a very small subset of stocks

[COMMENT: There are two thoughts that come to mind here. Firstly, the investment period quoted below of 90 years is not relevant to many retail investors, and it is easy to cherry pick a start and end date for comparative purposes to suit the hypothesis. But secondly, and of more interest, is the notion that a small portion of stocks produce the greatest returns. So how can we spot these?]

(19 June 2017, AFR, p22, by Chad Slater)

‘Does the average stock outperform cash? No. – This sentence almost seems nonsensical – of course we know the stock market does better than cash through time, so let’s start with a question: What is the average annual return for US equities over 90 years? OK, got that in your head? Now what do you think the average stock return is over 90 years?

‘If you said 7 per cent, for the first one you would be spot on. If you said the most frequent outcome was a loss of 100 per cent of your capital for the second question, you were right.

‘This is what is called the positive skew that exists in equity markets: most of the gains that come from holding equities come from a very small subset of stocks. Positive skew is when the median (the middle outcome when everything is lined up in order) is below the average (the sum of total outcomes divided by the number). People’s wealth and incomes have this distribution for example, skewed by a few billionaires.

‘If we return to the title, a paper by Bessembinder shows that 58 per cent of stocks have lifetime holding period returns less than the one month T-Bills (cash) and less than half are even positive. The average lifespan of a US equity is just over seven years.

‘On the other side, the skew is incredible. From 1926 to 2016, of the 26,000 stocks listed in the US during that time, 86 stocks (or 0.3 per cent) generated more than 50 per cent of the total return. The next top 1000 (4 per cent) generated all the excess returns over cash, with the other 96 per cent matching cash.

‘So what does this mean for equity investing?’

Read more at AFR.com (might need AFR login access, or try: AFR.com/trial)

Advertisements

About robertbrain

Brainy's Share Market Toolbox. Read the honest truth about the sharemarket. Develop or fine tune your investing/trading strategies using share price charts (technical analysis), or learn about the investment strategies of others. Melbourne (Australia) based - supporting share market investors and traders to build wealth through smarter investing using my Share Market Toolbox arsenal of weapons to tackle the market.

Discussion

No comments yet.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: