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(28 March 2020, AFR, p24, Sarah Turner, Reporter) ‘Australia’s sharemarket ended a week of massive gains with a loss on Friday as the number of virus cases in the US surpassed those in China, and it became increasingly clear that the pandemic’s deadly toll will not be slowed by the monster US stimulus package. ‘Investors … Continue reading
(11 February 2020, AFR, p25, Robert Guy, Senior Writer) ‘President Trump’s tweeting trigger finger may be called into action as the US dollar trades at a three-month high, but the greenback’s renewed strength also presents a headache for the Federal Reserve as it struggles to steer inflation back to its 2 per cent goal. The … Continue reading
(10 February 2020, AFR, p20, William McInnes, Reporter) ‘Markets in the US shrugged off a stellar jobs number on Friday, amid continuing concerns about the global economic cost of the coronavirus outbreak. On Friday, the S&P 500 Index fell 18.1 points, or 0.5 per cent, to 3327.71 while the yield on the US 10-year Treasury … Continue reading
(31 January 2020, CNBC online, Fred Imbert) ‘Stocks fell sharply on Friday, wiping out the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s gain for January, as investors grew increasingly worried about the potential economic impact of China’s fast-spreading coronavirus. The Dow dropped 603.41 points, or 2.1%, to 28,256.03 in the 30-stock average’s worst day since August. The S&P … Continue reading
(1 February 2020, AFR, p14, Lucia Mutikani) ‘Washington | The US economy missed the Trump administration’s 3 per cent growth target for a second straight year, posting its slowest annual growth in three years in 2019 as the slump in business investment deepened amid damaging trade tensions.’ Read more at AFR.com (might need AFR login … Continue reading
(1 February 2020, AFR, p1, Michael Smith and Tom McIlroy) ‘Shanghai/Canberra | The world is bracing for its worst health crisis in decades – China’s deadly coronavirus has spread to 19 countries, including densely-populated India, and governments in Australia and around the world are scrambling to shield their citizens. Russia closed its more than 4000-kilometre … Continue reading
(30 January 2020, AFR, p10, Jacob Greber, United States Correspondent) ‘Washington | The United States will spend most of the 21st century mired in ballooning government debt as a new spending surge and the Trump administration’s tax cuts push this year’s deficit above $US1 trillion ($1.48 trillion). The independent Congressional Budget Office has painted a … Continue reading
(23 January 2020, AFR, p39, Stephen Kirchner, Contributor) ‘After two years of negotiations, the US and China have signed a “phase one” economic and trade agreement that has forestalled further increases in US tariffs on imports from China. Equity markets rallied on the news, a measure of the extent to which the trade war has … Continue reading
[COMMENT – Donald Trump – talking up the US economy again. Is this actually true? } (23 January 2020, AFR, p10, Hans van Leeuwen, Europe correspondent) ‘Davos, Switzerland | US President Donald Trump turned a much-anticipated appearance at the elite Davos forum into a rally for his November re-election bid, lauding his country’s economic revival … Continue reading
(21 January 2020, AFR, p10, Jeffrey Schott, Contributor ‘Champagne corks popped on January 15 as US and Chinese officials signed phase one of their bilateral trade deal. But the celebration seems premature. Champagne corks popped on January 15 as US and Chinese officials signed phase one of their bilateral trade deal. But the celebration seems … Continue reading
(13 January 2020, AFR, p26, Luke Housego, Reporter) ‘… In what was otherwise a strong week for US equites, shares dipped on Friday on the release of employment growth figures for the world’s largest economy. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a rise in non-farm payroll employment of 145,000 in December and a steady … Continue reading
(9 January 2020, AFR, p13, William McInnes, Reporter) ‘Global markets were sent into a panic on Wednesday after Iran attacked US forces based in Iraq in retaliation for the killing of Iranian major general Qassem Soleimani, escalating tensions between Tehran and Washington. Iran reportedly fired more than a dozen ballistic missiles against at least two … Continue reading
(6 January 2020, AFR, p12, William McInnes, Reporter) ‘Global equity markets could be rocked by a savage correction if tensions between the United States and Iran escalate, and a jump in the oil price is sustained. Investors were caught off-guard on Friday, after an airstrike ordered by US President Donald Trump killed Major General Qassem Soleimani, … Continue reading
(4 January 2020, AFR, p7, Liz Main, Reporter) ‘China and India will eclipse the United States as world economic super powers and Asia will account for 35 per cent of the world’s gross domestic product by 2030, according to research by KPMG. “It will be in the next decade, for sure,” said Doug Ferguson, head … Continue reading
(14 December 2019, AFR, p14, Jacob Greber and Michael Smith) ‘Washington/Shanghai | Hopes are rising among investors, corporate capex managers and consumers that US and Chinese negotiators have agreed to a modest starter deal to halt a bruising trade war that has roiled the global economy and dented confidence. More than eight weeks after US … Continue reading
(13 December 2019, AFR, p27, James Politi) ‘Washington | Jamie Dimon, the chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, has warned Donald Trump that imposing tariffs on additional Chinese goods would inflict damage to the US economy, as the US president faces a decision within days on whether to impose new levies on Beijing. Speaking at the … Continue reading
(9 December 2019, AFR, p12, Jacob Greber, United States Correspondent) ‘America’s roaring labour market is on fire. Driven by a vast demographic bulge of Millennials as they enter their prime earning years, employment continues at a blistering pace across the world’s biggest economy. Friday’s official payrolls data showed unemployment is back down to its lowest … Continue reading
(5 December 2019, The Age, Business, p23, Stephen Bartholomeusz) ‘Events of the past few days have demonstrated, again, how sensitive financial markets are to Donald Trump’s tweets and comments on tariffs. Those markets have been unsettled by the prospect Trump raised on Tuesday of a deferral of any deal with China until after next year’s … Continue reading
(4 December 2019, AFR, p12, Lucia Mutikani) ‘Washington | US factory activity contracted further in November amid a slump in new orders while construction spending unexpectedly fell, offering cautionary notes on an economy that had recently shown signs of growing at a moderate pace. The reports on Monday (Tuesday AEDT) came on the heels of … Continue reading
(27 November 2019, AFR, p34, By Abha Bhattarai) ‘Abdul Mannan was perched on a stool, scrolling through his phone, on a recent afternoon at Lakeforest Mall in suburban Washington. He was two hours into his shift at a jewelry kiosk and had yet to exchange words with a single customer.’ <snipped…> ‘… But in the … Continue reading
(25 November 2019, AFR, p39, Nouriel Roubini, Contributor) ‘There is a disconnect between rising equity values and the fundamental threats to the global economy. This past May and August, escalations in the trade and technology conflict between the United States and China rattled stockmarkets and pushed bond yields to historic lows. Since then, financial markets … Continue reading
(7 November 2019, AFR, p28, Heather Long) ‘The message from the markets, many experts, the latest economic data and top Federal Reserve officials is that recession risk has subsided. Somewhere around Halloween, the US economy started to look a bit less scary. Top US and Chinese officials are talking about a trade war truce. Many … Continue reading
(30 October 2019, The Age, Business, p23, Stephen Bartholomeusz) ‘The US sharemarket hit another record on Monday. The obvious question is why? The answer might appear somewhat convoluted. The market isn’t being driven by good news but by the bad news not being quite as bad as once feared. That’s a suspect underpinning for a … Continue reading
(25 October 2019, AFR, p14, Reade Pickert) ‘Washington | A key US factory gauge unexpectedly contracted for the first time since 2016, boosting expectations for interest-rate cuts as global manufacturing woes deepen. The Institute for Supply Management’s purchasing managers index fell to 49.1 in August, weaker than all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists. … Continue reading
(12 October 2019 (AEST), Wall Street Journal online, By Gunjan Banerji) ‘U.S. stocks soared Friday on progress in the trade talks between the U.S. and China, helping the S&P 500 break a three-week losing streak. Major stock indexes jumped as President Trump offered an upbeat assessment of trade talks and the U.S. said it had … Continue reading
(12 October 2019, AFR, p32, William McInnes) ‘Market-based measures of the risk of a US recession faded this week, but global indicators are painting a bleaker picture of the rest of the world, supporting the inference that the Germany economy is already in recession. Morgan Stanley’s recession indicator, which calculates the probability the US economy … Continue reading
(8 October 2019, The Age, p29, By Lucy Battersby) ‘The local market had a strong session on Monday albeit with very low volumes due to public holidays around the country. A positive lead came from Wall Street US on Friday after US non-farm payrolls expanded by 136,000 in September. This missed expectations but still boosted … Continue reading
(5 October 2019, AFR online, Lucia Mutikani) ‘Washington | The US unemployment rate dropped to near a 50-year low of 3.5 per cent in September, with job growth increasing moderately, suggesting the slowing economy could avoid a recession for now despite trade tensions that are hammering manufacturing. The Labor Department’s closely watched monthly employment report … Continue reading
(4 October 2019, The Age, Business, p21, Stephen Bartholomeusz) ‘Last year the US sharemarket imploded in the final quarter, primarily because the Federal Reserve was foreshadowing a series of interest rate hikes, but also because of the then-developing trade conflict with China. It’s happening again but this time the sell-off – the US sharemarket has … Continue reading
(4 October 2019, AFR, p14, Tim Hepher, Philip Blenkinsop and David Lawder) ‘London/Brussels/Washington | The United States on Thursday (AEST) said it would slap 10 per cent tariffs on European-made Airbus planes and 25 per cent duties on French wine, Scotch and Irish whiskies, and cheese from across the continent as punishment for illegal EU … Continue reading
Aussie Sharemarket Barometer 