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17 April 2019 (AFR) – Morgan Stanley sees ASX200 dropping to 5800 by year’s end

(17 April 2019, AFR, p29, Sarah Turner) ‘The Australian mining sector is now worth more than the banking sector but, even with a strong performance from the country’s top resource companies, Morgan Stanley’s Chris Nicol doubts the ASX can extend a strong first-quarter into the end of the year. Morgan Stanley expects the S&P/ASX200 Index … Continue reading

8 April 2019 (AFR) – US stocks brace for grim reporting season

(8 April 2019, AFR, p23, Timothy Moore) ‘First-quarter reporting season begins in the United States this week, with JPMorgan and Wells Fargo first off the rank, and the outlook is not particularly optimistic. Morgan Stanley’s chief US equity strategy Michael Wilson said he expected the March quarter to be the first quarter where year-over-year earnings … Continue reading

13 Feb 2019 (AFR) – Retail drags business conditions to barely recover from December lows: NAB

(13 February 2019, AFR, p9, by Matthew Cranston) ‘Interest rates will remain on hold until 2020, according to NAB, after the bank’s latest survey showed business conditions barely rebounded in January after December saw the biggest monthly fall since the global financial crisis. Business conditions rose 4 points to 7 index points in January, but … Continue reading

5 Feb 2019 (AFR) – Argo Investments predicts volatile 2019 for ASX investors

(5 February 2019, AFR, p15, by Simon Evans) ‘The managing director of the $7 billion Argo Investments says 2019 is likely to be as volatile as last year because there are so many local uncertainties still to be resolved including the severity of the housing downturn, the Hayne royal commission fallout and the federal election. … Continue reading

25 Jan 2019 (AFR) – Number of houses and units built across Australia forecast to drop by 25 per cent

(25 January 2019, AFR, p34, by Ingrid Fuary-Wagner) ‘The number of new homes built across Australia is expected to drop dramatically by 25 per cent from when construction peaked three years ago to fiscal 2023. A record number of homes were built during the height of the boom over the 2015-2016 financial year and while … Continue reading

23 Jan 2019 (AFR) – Downbeat IMF underlines commodity risks

(23 January 2019, AFR, p29, by Sarah Turner) ‘The International Monetary Fund’s second downgrade to the global growth outlook in three months has underlined the risks facing Australia’s commodity exports to China. The IMF lowered its global growth forecast for 2019 to 3.5 per cent from a previous projection of 3.7 per cent to reflect … Continue reading

8 Jan 2019 (AFR) – Goldman sounds the China alarm and cuts metals outlook

(8 January 2019, AFR, p16, by Bloomberg News) ‘Goldman Sachs chopped back its near-term metals forecasts as China’s economy has “decelerated notably,” while balancing that outlook with a prediction mainland policy makers will respond by stoking expansion in the second half, aiding a revival in copper and aluminum. The bank — which had been consistently … Continue reading

17 Nov 2018 (AFR) – State Street’s Olivia Engel sees higher volatility in 2019 as earnings growth slows

(17 November 2018, AFR, p23, by William McInnes) ‘Next year will be one of increased volatility compounded by a slowdown in global earnings growth as the macroeconomic environment becomes more difficult, according to State Street’s Olivia Engel. “In 2019, we’ll see global economic growth slowing and global earnings slowing,” the State Street Global Advisors chief … Continue reading

17 Dec 2018 (AFR) – Singapore property ‘standstill’ expected next year

(17 December 2018, AFR, p32, by Pooja Thakur) ‘Just when Singapore’s residential property market was reviving after a four-year slump, government moves to curb the exuberance might play spoiler going into the new year. Home prices that are forecast to climb as much as 10 per cent this year could remain flat in 2019 and … Continue reading

11 Dec 2018 (AFR) – Fake and bad news is depressing the market, JP Morgan’s Marko Kolanovic says

(11 December 2018, AFR, p29, By Joanna Ossinger) ‘Biased news outlets, political opportunists and publicity-hungry analysts are whipping the stock market into a frenzy that goes beyond anything justified by economic or earnings fundamentals, according to JP Morgan strategists. Marko Kolanovic, global head of macro quantitative and derivatives research, was among the JPM analysts who … Continue reading

6 Dec 2018 (AFR) – ASX back to 6000 in 2019: Morgan Stanley

[COMMENT – I am always amused by those who proffer forecasts such as this – that the Top 200 index will be at 6000 in a years time. How can this be anything but sheer ‘educated’ guess work?] (6 December 2018, AFR, p28, By Tim Boyd) ‘Morgan Stanley strategists have set their 12-month price target … Continue reading

29 Nov 2018 (AFR) – Perth house prices will grow faster than all other markets in 2019: Domain Group

(29 November 2018, AFR, p30, by Ingrid Fuary-Wagner) ‘After a free fall in prices over the past four years, house values in Perth are expected to grow faster than any other capital city in 2019, according to real estate group Domain. Perth house prices are expected to hit rock bottom by the beginning of 2019 and then grow 5 per cent … Continue reading

15 Nov 2018 (AFR) – Big city house prices may fall 30pc from peak – Sydney and Melbourne prices could fall as much as 30pc from peak prices

(15 November 2018, AFR, p33, by Su-Lin Tan) ‘By the end of 2019, Sydney and Melbourne house prices may fall by 12 to 17 per cent from peak prices and could trigger a recession, SQM Research’s annual Christopher’s Housing Boom and Bust Report says. If negative gearing is repealed, then the fall from peak prices could … Continue reading

10 Oct 2018 (AFR) – Trade war ‘negative’ for Australia, world economic growth to ‘plateau’: IMF

(10 October 2018, AFR, p6, by John Kehoe) ‘Australia’s strong economic growth is tipped to peak at a six-year high of 3.2 per cent in 2018 before the US-China trade war slows the export-dependent local economy next year, according to the International Monetary Fund’s latest world economic outlook (WEO). The IMF forecasts the world economic … Continue reading

31 May 2018 (AFR,Bloomberg) – Soros Sees New Global Financial Crisis Brewing, EU Under Threat

(31 May 2018, AFR, p12, by: Nikos Chrysoloras and Helene Fouquet) ‘A surging dollar and a capital flight from emerging markets may lead to another “major” financial crisis, investor George Soros said, warning the European Union that it’s facing an imminent existential threat. The “termination” of the nuclear deal with Iran and the “destruction” of the … Continue reading

22 May 2018 (TheAge) – NAB joins pack in pushing out timing of RBA rate hike

(22 May 2018, The Age, Business, p20, Sarah Turner) ‘National Australia Bank has pushed out its predicted timing for an interest rate hike as wage growth remains elusive, with the bank saying the relationship between wages and employment may need a rethink. The NAB economics team says an interest rate hike from the Reserve Bank … Continue reading

26 Apr 2018 (AFR) – Soft inflation supports Australian rates remaining on hold until late 2019

(26 April 2018, AFR, p26, by William McInnes) ‘Further evidence of a soft inflationary environment supports the consensus view that the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep the cash rate on hold until late 2019, according to market economists. While the data revealed some surprisingly positive forces behind the core inflation figure, inflation remains below the RBA’s target band … Continue reading

19 Apr 2018 (AFR) – The global economic recovery is real but fragile

(19 April 2018, AFR, p25, Martin Wolf) ‘The world economy is enjoying a period of strong economic growth. It is not growing as quickly as it did between 2003 and 2007, but, in view of how that surge ended, we should be grateful for that mercy. Both growth in 2017 and the growth forecast by … Continue reading

19 Apr 2018 (AFR) – Peak in equities still ahead, according to latest BAML fund manager survey

[COMMENT: Can you believe this? Would you believe this? Fund managers are forecasting the market – but then that is what they do all the time, and then they bet (other people’s) money on their educated guess. Some of us struggle with this. Some technical analysts would look at the chart of the S&P500, and … Continue reading

9 Apr 2018 (TheAge,SMH) – LNG to drive record $230b in energy exports

(9 April 2018, The Age, Business, p23, Cole Latimer) ‘Australia will reach a record $230 billion in energy exports this financial year driven by an LNG and oil boom. The March 2018 edition of the federal government’s Resources and Energy Quarterly forecasts a buoyant export market that will hit more than $230 billion this year and … Continue reading

9 Feb 2018 (AFR) – RBNZ expects to hold interest rates at record low until mid-2019

(9 February 2018, AFR, p16, by Tracy Withers) ‘New Zealand’s central bank held interest rates at a record low and projected they would stay there until mid-2019 as inflation remained subdued amid slower economic growth.’ Read more at AFR.com (might need AFR login access, or try: AFR.com/trial)

3 Feb 2018 (AFR) – NAB tips first Sydney house price fall since 2011 – house price outlook slashed

(3 February 2018, AFR, p3, by Michael Bleby) ‘A faster-than-expected deterioration in Sydney has caused NAB to slash its outlook for house prices this year, as investors and foreign buyers pulled back after years of growth-driving activity. The NAB Residential Property Survey Q4 2017 predicts a 2.4 per cent decline in Sydney detached dwelling prices this year, in contrast to … Continue reading

23 Jan 2018 (AFR) – Office market booms: 19pc rise in inquiry points to strong 2018, Colliers says

(23 January 2018, AFR, p31, by Michael Bleby) ‘A 19 per cent increase in office leasing inquiries in the final quarter of last year points to continued strong activity this year, according to Colliers International’s latest Office Demand Index report.  Gains in the country’s largest office market of Sydney, along with surging levels of inquiry in … Continue reading

12 Dec 2017 (AFR) – Don’t get run out by the bulls in 2018 – Get out of US stocks by mid-2018: Russell Investments’ world outlook

(12 December 2017, AFR, p32, by Philip Baker) ‘A recession next year in the United States is a one-in-four chance, it’s best to be out of US stocks before the second half of 2018, Japan and Europe will be the new hot spots and the Australian dollar looks overvalued. These are just some of the … Continue reading

12 Dec 2017 (AFR) – The ASX bull run is not over, but beware the ‘bondcano’

(12 December 2017, AFR, p31, by Patrick Commins) ‘Despite a year of solid returns from Australian shares and blockbuster gains in overseas markets, the mood among local investors remains decidedly pessimistic. Which is why, Credit Suisse Australian equity strategist Hasan Tevfik says, he can be branded a raging stockmarket bull for a reasonably conservative forecast … Continue reading

7 Dec 2017 (AFR) – Why the ASX will beat Wall St in 2018: Macquarie

[COMMENT: Here is another forecast – some people would call this guess-work.] (7 December 2017, AFR, p27, by Patrick Commins) ‘The ASX’s “sweet spot” of reasonable underlying economic growth, persistently low rates, and relatively attractive valuation will make Australian shares a better investment in 2018 than their more fancied US counterparts. That’s the view of … Continue reading

21 Sept 2017 (TheAge,SMH) – ANZ Bank tips two RBA interest rate hikes in 2018

(21 September 2017, The Age, BusinessDay, p21, Clancy Yeates) ‘ANZ Bank predicts the Reserve Bank will raise official interest rates by 0.5 percentage points next year as the economy gradually improves, with the first hike tipped for May. Australia’s cash rate has been at a record low of…’ Read more at SMH.com.au

16 Aug 2017 (TheAge) – RBA warns construction activity could start to decline

(16 August 2017, The Age, BusinessDay, p21, Eryk Bagshaw) ‘The Reserve Bank has warned construction activity could begin to decline as the number of residential building approvals falls from its peak in 2016.  The message, released in the minutes of the central bank’s August meeting on Tuesday, comes a week after BIS Oxford Economics forecast a 31 … Continue reading

21 June 2017 (AFR) – Morgan Stanley sees ASX200 falling 10pc: how to trade an economic downturn

(21 June 2017, AFR, p31, by Myriam Robin) ‘The S&P/ASX200 will shed 10 per cent of its value over the next year, according to Morgan Stanley. But a falling market needn’t spell disaster. Morgan Stanley has one of the most bearish views of the Australian sharemarket, having significantly downgraded its 12-month index forecast earlier this month … Continue reading

30 May 2017 (TheAge) – No rose-coloured glasses: Treasury secretary John Fraser says this time things really are picking up

(30 May 2017, The Age, p5, Peter Martin) ‘Treasury secretary John Fraser has defended his budget forecast for economic growth, saying there are indications “the long period of growth undershooting forecasts is beginning to come to an end”. In the past three budgets the Treasury has forecast a lift in economic growth of 3 per … Continue reading