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17 Jan 2020 (TheAge) – US-China trade deal threatens Australian exporters

(17 January 2020, The Age, p5, By Eryk Bagshaw and Matthew Knott) ‘Australian markets smashed through record highs after the United States and China signed the first phase of a trade deal that could put an end to more than two years of tension and hit local exporters.’ <snipped…> ‘The agreement could see the US … Continue reading

15 Jan 2020 (AFR) – China’s economy to slow as trade, property risks linger

(15 January 2020, AFR, p11, Michael Smith, China Correspondent) ‘Shanghai | China’s slowing economy has been given a temporary reprieve from Donald Trump’s tariff ceasefire, but is not out of the woods yet, economist have warned. Leading economists said on Tuesday that the risk of further confrontation with the US on trade, along with geopolitical … Continue reading

14 Jan 2020 (AFR) – Ford’s vehicle sales in China tumble for third consecutive year

(14 January 2020, AFR, p16, Brenda Goh and Yilei Sun) ‘Ford Motor Co’s China vehicle sales fell for a third consecutive year, by 26.1 per cent as it battles a prolonged overall sales decline in its second-biggest market that has hit demand for its mass-market Ford brand and sports utility vehicles. The US automaker delivered … Continue reading

13 Jan 2020 (AFR) – Blow to Beijing as Taiwan’s Tsai Ing-wen wins in a landslide

(13 January 2020, AFR, p9, Michael Smith, China Correspondent) ‘Taipei | Taiwan’s voters have sent Beijing a clear signal they have no desire to live under a Hong Kong-style “one country, two systems” model after delivering president Tsai Ing-wen a landslide election victory and cementing her pro-independence party’s control of the island state’s parliament. The … Continue reading

6 Jan 2020 (TheAge) – China’s economy tipped to get worse before it gets better

(6 January 2020, The Age, Business, p30, By David Scutt) ‘Despite reduced trade tensions with the United States, an improvement in its vast manufacturing sector and additional stimulus measures, economists believe China’s economy is likely to get worse before it gets better in early 2020. “We see limited room for policy easing given Beijing’s target … Continue reading

4 Jan 2020 (AFR) – China, India set to overtake US economy by 2030

(4 January 2020, AFR, p7, Liz Main, Reporter) ‘China and India will eclipse the United States as world economic super powers and Asia will account for 35 per cent of the world’s gross domestic product by 2030, according to research by KPMG. “It will be in the next decade, for sure,” said Doug Ferguson, head … Continue reading

18 Dec 2019 (TheAge) – ASX: Markets get some relief, but dangerous times lie ahead

(18 December 2019, The Age, Business, p23, Stephen Bartholomeusz) ‘There were huge sighs of relief in global financial markets on Monday as the “Phase One” trade deal between the US and China and the outcome of the British election took the worst-case outcomes for investors off the table. It didn’t hurt that there was good … Continue reading

17 Dec 2019 (TheAge,SMH) – Donald Trump has changed the way the world operates

(17 December 2019, The Age, Business, p24, Stephen Bartholomeusz) ‘A tentative trade deal between the US and China, Brexit, the signing of new US trade deals with Canada and Mexico and the neutering of the World Trade Organisation by the US have effectively ended the post-war era of multi-lateralism in global trade. On Friday the … Continue reading

16 Dec 2019 (AFR) – Global economy: Trade, Tories place a floor under the global economy

(16 December 2019, AFR, p24, Sarah Turner, Reporter) ‘A partial trade deal between the US and China and a thumping Conservative win in the UK election appear to have effectively placed a floor under the global economy, underpinning markets as they head into the new year. Investor anxiety had been rising ahead of the British … Continue reading

14 Dec 2019 (AFR) – US reaches ‘deal in principle’ with China on trade

(14 December 2019, AFR, p14, Jacob Greber and Michael Smith) ‘Washington/Shanghai | Hopes are rising among investors, corporate capex managers and consumers that US and Chinese negotiators have agreed to a modest starter deal to halt a bruising trade war that has roiled the global economy and dented confidence. More than eight weeks after US … Continue reading

13 Dec 2019 (AFR) – China steel demand tipped to fall next year

(13 December 2019, AFR, p14, Michael Smith, China Correspondent) ‘Shanghai | China’s chief government forecaster has predicted lower steel demand in 2020, the first decline in five years and possibly bad news for Australian iron ore miners. The China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute said on Thursday that the country’s steel demand would fall by … Continue reading

13 Dec 2019 (AFR) – Hopes fade for long-term China-US deal as tariff deadline looms

(13 December 2019, AFR, p14, Michael Smith, China Correspondent) ‘Shanghai | Hopes are fading that the United States and China will agree on a “phase one” trade deal before Christmas, but US president Donald Trump is expected to hold fire on the latest wave of tariffs, which were due to be implemented on Sunday. Business … Continue reading

10 Dec 2019 (AFR) – Defusing China’s banking time bomb

(10 December 2019, AFR, p36, Michael Smith, China Correspondent) ‘A run on small provincial Chinese lenders has rattled confidence in the world’s biggest banking system — which is wedged between a drive to reduce risky loans, and Beijing’s demands to keep lending to business. ‘ ‘Shanghai | A run by customers on two smaller banks … Continue reading

5 Dec 2019 (TheAge) – Bemused and disturbed: Confusion reigns as Trump’s love affair with tariffs deepens

(5 December 2019, The Age, Business, p23, Stephen Bartholomeusz) ‘Events of the past few days have demonstrated, again, how sensitive financial markets are to Donald Trump’s tweets and comments on tariffs. Those markets have been unsettled by the prospect Trump raised on Tuesday of a deferral of any deal with China until after next year’s … Continue reading

4 Dec 2019 (AFR) – Days of cheque-book growth are over in Xi’s China

(4 December 2019, AFR, p39,  Adrian Blundell-Wignall, Columnist) ‘Don’t be fooled by Beijng’s fake GDP numbers. The credit-fuelled Chinese economy is bust. Despite what Paul Keating says, concerns about the condition of the Chinese economy, and the potential impact this may have on Australia’s security, are not based on hysteria. The Chinese economy has changed … Continue reading

3 Dec 2019 (AFR) – China’s factory activity surprises with fastest expansion in years

(3 December 2019, AFR, p12, Tang Ziyi) ‘Beijing | The rate at which China’s manufacturing activity is growing rose to its highest point in nearly three years in November, driven by rising stocks of purchased items and stronger job creation, a Caixin-sponsored survey showed Monday. The Caixin China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which … Continue reading

3 Dec 2019 (TheAge) – As trade truce looms, China’s key manufacturing sector starts to lift

(3 December 2019, The Age, p25, Stephen Bartholomeusz) ‘As the US and China edge closer to a truce in their trade war, China’s manufacturing activity appears to have bottomed out after six months of shrinking. At the weekend China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers index was released. The November survey produced a reading of 50.2 against … Continue reading

28 Nov 2019 (AFR) – PBoC warns as China’s household debt hits record

(28 November 2019, AFR, p10, Guo Yingzhe and Peng Qinqin) ‘Beijing | China’s consumers continued their borrowing binge last year, even as growth in incomes lagged, driving the country’s household debt-to-disposable income ratio to a record and prompting a warning from the central bank about the need for tougher action to ward off risks. Outstanding … Continue reading

25 Nov 2019 (AFR) – Don’t bet on markets rising as risks to growth escalate

(25 November 2019, AFR, p39,  Nouriel Roubini, Contributor) ‘There is a disconnect between rising equity values and the fundamental threats to the global economy. This past May and August, escalations in the trade and technology conflict between the United States and China rattled stockmarkets and pushed bond yields to historic lows. Since then, financial markets … Continue reading

25 Nov 2019 (AFR) – China breeding sow stock rises for first time since fever outbreak

(25 November 2019, AFR, p11, Du Caicai and Tang Ziyi) ‘Beijing | China’s pork production is showing signs of recovery as the inventory of breeding sows registered the first month-on-month increase in October since the outbreak of deadly African swine fever last year, official data showed. The country’s stock of breeding sows rose 0.6 per … Continue reading

22 Nov 2019 (AFR) – China’s hidden debt problem as a city asks its nurses for a loan

(22 November 2019, AFR, Review supplement p5, Alexandra Stevenson and Cao Li) ‘When the call came for local doctors and nurses to step up for their troubled community, the emergency wasn’t medical. It was financial. Ruzhou, a city of a million people in central China, urgently needed a new hospital, their bosses said. To pay … Continue reading

22 Nov 2019 (AFR) – Hong Kong moves to centre stage of US-China showdown

(22 November 2019, AFR, p14, Simon Denyer and Tiffany Liang) ‘Hong Kong | The prospect of a diplomatic showdown between the United States and China over Hong Kong sent global stock markets sliding on Thursday, after Congress passed a bill intended to protect human rights in the territory and Beijing threatened retaliation. Hong Kong’s stock … Continue reading

21 Nov 2019 (AFR) – China cuts new benchmark lending rate to lower costs, shore up economy

(21 November 2019, AFR, p13, Winni Zhou and John Ruwitch) ‘Shanghai | China cut its new benchmark lending rate on Wednesday, as widely expected, moving to drive down funding costs and shore up an economy hurt by slowing demand and trade tariffs. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was lowered by 5 basis points to … Continue reading

16 Nov 2019 (AFR) – Four signs bullish investors need to see

(16 November 2019, AFR, p32,  Robert Guy, Senior Writer) ‘Stronger growth in major economies and a manufacturing recovery are just two indicators the uptick in global markets can be sustained. It’s the global rally powered by magical thinking. There may be no hard evidence – yet – of a recovery in the global economy, but … Continue reading

15 Nov 2019 (AFR) – China regulators move to defuse jitters after two bank runs

(15 November 2019, AFR, p16, Wu Xiaomeng, Wu Hongyuran and Han Wei) ‘Beijing | Top Chinese bank regulators moved to defuse growing unease in the country’s $US40 trillion ($58.5 trillion) banking system after two small lenders were hit with bank runs in less than two weeks. In a briefing this week, three senior officials of … Continue reading

14 Nov 2019 (AFR) – Pork prices double in China on swine fever fallout

(14 November 2019, AFR, p13, Du Caicai and Ren Qiuyu) ‘Beijing | Pork prices have more than doubled in China as a nationwide outbreak of African swine fever continues to wreak havoc on the market. Prices of the country’s favourite meat in October surged 101.3 per cent year-on-year and 20.1 per cent from September, according … Continue reading

13 Nov 2019 (AFR) – China credit slump underscores weak corporate demand

(13 November 2019, AFR, p15, Peng Qinqin and Han Wei) ‘Beijing | Chinese corporations’ demand for credit has turned sluggish as the economy cools, dragging new credit growth to nearly a two-year low in October. Data from the central bank showed that in October the country added 618.9 billion yuan ($128.5 billion) of total social … Continue reading

13 Nov 2019 (TheAge) – Xi Jinping comes to Greece bearing gifts, lands significant new deals

(13 November 2019, The Age, p17, By Nick Miller and Irene Lioumi) ‘London: China has announced plans to dramatically increase its stake in Greece, which it sees as an economic gateway to Europe, with a suite of 16 new investment and trade agreements signed on a visit by President Xi Jinping to Athens on Monday. … Continue reading

12 Nov 2019 (AFR) – Alibaba clocks up another Singles’ Day sales bonanza

(12 November 2019, AFR, p13, Michael Smith, China Correspondent) ‘Shanghai | China’s internet slowed to a crawl shortly after midnight on Monday as tens of millions of people simultaneously picked up their smartphones to shop online. Bargain-hungry consumers, many huddled in bed, began ratcheting up billions of dollars of purchases in the early hours of … Continue reading

7 Nov 2019 (TheAge) – In major about-face, US may roll back tariffs to end trade war with China

(7 November 2019, The Age, Business, p23, Stephen Bartholomeusz) ‘It finally appears to have dawned on the Trump administration that, while its trade war with China may have damaged that country’s economy, the US hasn’t escaped unscathed. That probably explains why negotiations on a “phase one” or interim trade truce reportedly include not only the … Continue reading