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1.Market Observations, 8.Was Sticky

28 June 2018 (AFR) – Markets are backing Donald Trump to win trade warMarkets are backing Donald Trump to win trade war

(28 June 2018, AFR, p30, by Patrick Commins)

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index weekly (Bloomberg)

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index weekly (Bloomberg)

‘Who stands to win in the brewing trade war between China and the United States? If moves in equity and currency markets are any indication, investors are betting big on America. Stocks in Shanghai have now slumped 20 per cent from their peak in late January, fulfilling the technical definition of a bear market – or a panda bear market, if you will. Since Donald Trump introduced steel and aluminium tariffs at the end of February, the Chinese mainland benchmark is off by 13 per cent while the S&P 500 is broadly flat. This neatly fits with the rubric of “nobody wins from a trade war”, but some may, of course lose more than others. The latest escalation of US threats against China has also triggered a slide in the renminbi. The currency had been…’

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