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1.Market Observations, 8.Was Sticky

24 July 2017 (AFR) – Why the crisis prediction industry is wrong on China

(24 July 2017, AFR, p22, by Mark Tinker)

‘This month marks the 20th anniversary of the Asian financial crisis, while this year is the 10th anniversary of the global financial crisis and the 30th anniversary of the 1987 crash, so naturally the crisis prediction industry has been eager to predict this year’s crash. Most appear to have settled on China as the likely source of global instability, focusing on a misleading figure for debt to gross domestic product and obsessing that any slowdown in GDP will precipitate a banking crisis and some sort of 1997 financial meltdown.’

Read more at (might need AFR login access, or try:


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