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1.Market Observations, 8.Was Sticky

25 Nov 2016 (TheAge) – Morgan Stanley warns Australia’s economy may have gone backwards

(25 November 2016, The Age, BusinessDay, p25, Jessica Sier)

‘While markets including the ASX have shot higher following Donald Trump’s surprise election win in the US, some economists suggest Australia might be in for a rude shock. A continued unwind in resource investment, contracting activity in the housing sector, and weaker household incomes are on track to push Australia’s economy to shrink over the three months to September 30, argues Morgan Stanley. “We have been arguing that Australia’s ‘real GDP’ of 3.3 per cent year-on-year feels overstated,” say the team of analysts, led by equity strategist Chris Nicol, who suggest Australia’s GDP growth may come in at -0.3 per cent over the June quarter – well below the consensus forecast for 0.5 per cent growth. It would also be just the fourth quarter in the past 100 to post a contraction.’

Read more (and see the graphs of activity and prices) at

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