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1.Market Observations, 2.Economic forecasts, 8.Was Sticky

26 Sept 2016 (AFR) – Brexit: a good example of why you are often better off ignoring economists

(26 September 2016, AFR, p22, by Allister Heath)

‘One of the greatest problems for business, investors and anybody seeking to understand the world is distinguishing real, relevant events from useless, misleading background noise. This is especially true in an age of costless digital publishing and social media. Anybody who manages to do this successfully more often than not gains a dramatic advantage: it’s a version of what hedge funders call alpha – the ability to generate a return in excess of a benchmark without having to take on additional risk. Some investors possess alpha-qualities – but so do some economists and political analysts.’ <snipped…>

‘So those seeking out alpha – when it comes to Brexit or anything else – need to tread carefully. They must weigh up the evidence, the claims and counter-claims on all issues. But the fact that 90 per cent of economic forecasters agree with something should be no more relevant than the latest phase of the moon.’

Read more at (might need AFR login access, or try:


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