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30 Mar 2016 (TheAge, MONEY) – Unwary in for a nasty surprise – Truth about long-term investment and black swans

(30 March 2016, The Age, MONEY supplement, p6, Marcus Padley,  View more articles from Marcus Padley)

‘The expression “Black Swan event”…’ <snipped…>

‘…improve your chances, but to think that you can believe a long-term promise or make a long term judgment about a stock today, on the basis of the evidence available now, is irrational. Things happen and things change, and if the impossible is possible do you not think that the probable, which is about as certain as you can get in the stock market, can become improbable?’

‘The bottom line is that there are a lot of people out there trying to tell you the odds are a lot better than they are, that long-term investment is the only way and that they have the keys to the future. But they are wrong. Yes, we all want investments that go up forever. But to believe you can identify them on the facts in front of you today and to assume that those facts will persist over a long period of time is noble hope rather than a likely outcome.’

‘Long-term investment is arrogant and flawed, it runs counter to the statistically obvious and to sell or tell it is a pompous lie. Investors need to know their limitations and the limitations of others.’

Read the full article at

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